NFL
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
January 4, 2012 | 
Author The Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals kick off the playoffs as they meet in Reliant Stadium in Houston. The Texans are -3 point favorites over the Bengals with an over/under point total set at 38.5.
The Houston Texans have overcome more than any other team in the NFL suffering injuries at every major position at some point during the season but they got past them and won the AFC South. Though the Texans had the best record in the AFC with just a few weeks left in the regular season, three straight losses to close out the year have them playing in the first round, the first playoff appearance in franchise history. Four different players have played QB for the Texans and recently it has been T.J. Yates who was a four year starter in college and has looked less like an NFL rookie but last week against Tennessee he separated his shoulder and was forced to leave the game though all reports are he will be starting here. In the action he saw this year Yates completed 61.2 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Arian Foster missed action earlier this season but still managed to gain 1,224 yards and scored 10 touchdowns and Ben Tate averaged 5.4 yards per carry for 942 yards and four touchdowns. Andre Johnson missed most of the season with injuries so his numbers are low but he is back just in time playing last week and it’s been Owen Daniels with 54 catches and Kevin Walter with 39 catches though Foster gets a lot of short passes coming out of the backfield. The big improvement for the Texans came on defense where they were second in the NFL in yards allowed per game with 285.7 and allowing 17.4 points while snatching 17 interceptions, recovering 13 fumbles, and sacking the QB 44 times. Brian Cushing had 114 tackles, Glover Quin had 77 tackles, and Connor Barwin has11.5 sacks. It should be a raucous crowd for this one that is the first of what they hope are many playoff performances.
The Cincinnati Bengals controlled their own destiny in the final week of the NFL season but instead of getting the win and taking matters into their own hands, Marvin Lewis’ team were shredded by Ray Rice and the Baltimore Ravens and backed into the playoffs. Of course every playoff spot is earned over the course of the year but the Bengals had hoped to at least enter the post season with some sort of positive momentum as opposed to watching Rice rip off huge runs against them. Andy Dalton has led the Bengals to the playoffs in his rookie year and while his numbers won’t wow anyone they were enough to get it done as he completed 58.1 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions but he still tends to overthrow his receivers. Cedric Benson averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and gained 1,067 yards with six touchdowns. A.J. Green showed he was well worth the early draft pick with 65 catches and seven touchdowns, Jermaine Gresham had 56 catches and six touchdowns, and Jerome Simpson had 50 catches and four touchdowns. Defensively the Bengals allowed 316.3 yards per game and 20.2 points while they had 10 interceptions, 18 fumble recoveries, and 45 sacks. Thomas Howard had 99 tackles, Rey Maualuga had 88 tackles despite missing action, and Reggie Nelson had a nice comeback year with 85 tackles and four interceptions. Cincinnati was a better team on the road this year than they were at home and they look to make that work for them once again.
Houston is 3-0-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 5-2-2 against the spread in their last nine home games, and 6-2-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall. Cincinnati is 6-1-2 against the spread in their last nine road games, 1-5-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall, and 0-4-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The Texans have covered in the last four meetings of these two.
These two just meet three weeks ago in Cincinnati with Houston getting a comeback win in a 20-19 contest. The total opened right at the score of last game, 39, and it dropped a half of a point from there and with these two defenses I can see it staying close to that number but I still see it staying under.
Pick
Under 38.5
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
The New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys meet for the final game of the 2011 NFL regular season with the NFC East crown and a spot in the playoffs going to the winner as they settle it on Sunday Night Football. The Giants are -2.5 point favorites over the Cowboys with an over/under total set at 46.5.
The New York Giants have had their share of ups and downs this season but despite the speed bumps they have hit along the way Tom Coughlin’s team is just a win away from winning the NFC East and hosting a playoff game. The Giants beat the Jets last Sunday in a must win game for both teams and looked convincing doing so and they will need another big game from everyone to get it done in this spot. Eli Manning has taken every snap for the Giants this year completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 4,587 yards with 26 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Ahmad Bradshaw has been off and on this year but now he is healthy enough to play and though he averages just 3.9 yards per carry he has scored eight touchdowns and just his presence makes Brandon Jacobs more effective as he has scored seven touchdowns. Victor Cruz has 76 catches for 1,358 yards and eight touchdowns, Hakeem Nicks has 71 catches for 1,116 yards and six touchdowns, and Mario Manningham has 39 catches as New York has transformed from a tight end based passing game to one that features the wide receivers. The Giants defense has 42 sacks, 12 fumble recoveries, and 19 interceptions with a plus five turnover ratio and they allow 381.5 yards and 25.7 points per game. Antrel Rolle has 88 tackles, Michael Boley has 84 tackles, and Jason Pierre-Paul has 81 tackles and 15.5 sacks. The Giants have looked really good this year and have looked really bad at other times, they will need to bring their best in this spot.
The Dallas Cowboys have had some high and low points this season but that is all in the rear view mirror for Jason Garrett’s team as it all comes down to this one game and a “win and they are in scenario” when it comes to the playoffs. The Cowboys can look at numerous blown chances like against Detroit over the course of the season but they also had some great escapes like against Miami and San Francisco where they walked away with a win. Tony Romo banged up his hand last game but he will definitely be playing in this one and for the season he has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,895 yards with 29 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. The Dallas running game has been banged up but right now it looks to be Felix Jones and Sammy Morris look to get the action from this point forward. Jason Witten has 72 catches, Dez Bryant has 57 and nine touchdowns, and Laurent Robinson has 50 and and nine touchdowns while Miles Austin is also healthy once again. Defensively the Cowboys have 40 sacks, 12 fumble recoveries, and 15 interceptions with a plus six turnover ratio while they allow 336.9 yards and 21.1 points per game. Sean Lee has 94 tackles, Gerald Sensabaugh has 69 tackles, and DeMarcus Ware has 18 sacks. Dallas hasn’t seemed to be at 100 percent all season long yet they have managed to get it done which is a credit to their coaching staff.
New York is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against the NFC East, 1-4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, and 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite. Dallas is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games as an underdog, 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall, and 0-5 against the spread in their last six games against the NFC East. The underdog has covered five in a row in this series.
The total in this one is set at 46.5 and while it is in essence a playoff game the NFL game has changed and this one should go over the number as both of these teams passing games are far better than their running game which means more clock stoppages which means more plays which means more scoring; no need to make it more difficult than it is.
Pick
Over 46.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens meet for their final games of their 2011 NFL seasons in a game with huge post season implications. The Ravens are -3 point favorites over the Bengals with an over/under point total set at 39.5.
The Cincinnati Bengals have had a few chances to improve their position in the post season and though Marvin Lewis’ team hasn’t taken advantage of all of them, they control their own destiny with just one game left to play. The formula for the Bengals is simple, win and they or in as with a loss they would need a lot of help for there to be a next week. Rookie QB Andy Dalton may be one of the biggest surprises this year as he has completed 58.9 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Cedric Benson has rushed for 1,016 yards and six touchdowns and he has carried the load in the backfield. A.J. Green has 63 catches and seven touchdowns, Jermaine Gresham has 51 catches and six touchdowns, and Jerome Simpson has 45 catches. Defensively the Bengals have 44 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries, and 10 interceptions with a plus one turnover ratio and they allow 314.2 yards and 19.9 points per game. Thomas Howard has 94 tackles, Reggie Nelson has 83 tackles, and Rey Maualuga has 79 tackles despite missing some action this year. The Bengals have gotten a little too conservative at times but as there is no tomorrow the playbook should be wide open here.
The Baltimore Ravens have a chance to wrap up the AFC North and a first round bye in the playoffs with a win in this one or a Pittsburgh Steelers loss. The Ravens have played well for the most part but at times have looked lost on the road and have laid an egg even against lesser teams. Joe Flacco hasn’t looked his best but has had a lot of passes dropped as well and he’s completed 56.8 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ray Rice is averaging 4.4 yards per carry for 1,173 yards and 10 touchdowns and Ricky Williams is averaging 4.1 yards per carry. Rice also has 74 catches while Anquan Boldin has 57 catches, Ed Dickson has 53 catches, and Torrey Smith has 45 catches. Defensively Baltimore has 47 sacks, 20 fumble recoveries, and 15 interceptions with a plus one turnover ratio and they allow 285.7 yards and 16.7 points per game. Ray Lewis has 88 tackles, Cary Williams has 72 tackles, and Terrell Suggs has 13 sacks. The Ravens’ defense is aging but they are still loaded though they may be running out of chances with this core of players.
Cincinnati is 8-2 against the spread following a win, 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games as an underdog, and 1-4-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall. Baltimore is 4-0-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite, and 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games against AFC teams. The underdog is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five meetings of these two.
This one is going to be a defensive struggle and points will come at a premium and while the total is set aggressively low at 39.5, I see this one coming in under the number.
Pick
Under 39.5
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | 
Tags: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, NFL betting | 
Comments Closed
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks close out their 2011 seasons as they meet on Sunday in Arizona. The Cardinals are -3 point favorites over the Seahawks with an over/under point total set at 41.
The Arizona Cardinals had their share of highs and lows this season but unfortunately for them it was just a few too many lows and no matter what happens in this one they will be watching the playoffs from home once again this season. Arizona has had one of the stronger finishes this season but it has been case of too little too late and really in the end just not enough. Last offseason Arizona acquired Kevin Kolb to play QB but Kolb has spent much of the year injured and John Skelton has played plenty but all Cardinals receivers have a common denominator, too many interceptions. Beanie Wells had redemption on his mind this year and he has rushed for 1,047 yards and 10 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald has 71 catches and eight touchdowns, Early Doucet has 53 catches and five touchdowns, and Andre Roberts has 47 catches. Defensively Arizona has 38 sacks, 11 fumble recoveries, and nine interceptions with a minus 12 turnover ratio and they allow 354.2 yards and 21.9 points per game. Daryl Washington has 95 tackles, Paris Lenon has 87 tackles, and Calais Campbell has eight sacks. Arizona had several chances to win close games this year and like last week against Cincinnati they came up empty too many times.
The Seattle Seahawks played hard all season and while they aren’t going back to the playoffs this year, even though they may have a better record than they finished with last year, they have a lot to build on for the future. The Seahawks still need a few more pieces to fill out the puzzle but they look to be headed in the right direction. Tarvaris Jackson has completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch averages 4.2 yards per carry for 1,118 yards and 12 touchdowns. Doug Baldwin was the big surprise at receiver catching 48 passes and Golden Tate is contributing catching 30 passes. Defensively Seattle has 31 sacks, 12 fumble recoveries, and 21 interceptions with a plus seven turnover ratio and they allow 328.5 yards and 19.5 points per game. David Hawthorne has 102 tackles, Earl Thomas has 92 tackles, and Kam Chancellor has 89 tackles. The Seahawks will definitely be a team on the radar for next season.
Arizona is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the NFC, 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 against the NFC West, and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite. Seattle is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five road games, 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog, and 9-4 against the spread against the NFC West. The home team has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings of these two.
Both of these teams would have been scary to face in the playoffs as they are playing well and can beat any team in the NFL in any given week but I see the Cardinals having the edge in this one as the home team has had the edge in this series.
Pick
Arizona Cardinals -3 Seattle Seahawks
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | Tags: Arizona Cardinals, NFL betting, Seattle Seahawks | Comments Closed
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins close out their 2011 seasons with a meaningless game on Sunday. The Eagles are -9.5 point favorites over the Redskins with an over/under point total set at 46.
The Philadelphia Eagles are finally looking like the team many expected them to be this year but the problem for Andy Reid’s team is that it is a classic case of too little too late. Philadelphia went on a bad losing streak in mid-season that put them in a position they couldn’t possibly recover from. Michael Vick is back in the lineup and he looks healthier than he has all year as last week he threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns in Dallas. LeSean McCoy has put together a monster year as he’s rushed for 1,309 yards and 17 touchdowns and he’s caught 48 passes scoring three more times. Brent Celek has 56 catches with four touchdowns, Jeremy Maclin has 55 catches and five touchdowns, and DeSean Jackson has 54 catches and three touchdowns. Defensively the Eagles have 49 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, and 14 interceptions with a minus 13 turnover ratio while they allow 321.4 yards and 21.4 points per game. Jamar Chaney has 91 tackles, Kurt Coleman has 78 tackles, and Jason Babin has 18 sacks. The Eagles can only look to next year and wonder what might have been this year.
The Washington Redskins were thinking they were possibly a playoff team this season but instead Mike Shanahan’s team is drafting in the top 10 once again. While the Skins try and save face the also look for answers as to who will be part of this team next year and into the future and who will have to seek employment elsewhere. Rex Grossman has completed 58.8 percent of his passes but with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions it’s tough to believe that he is part of any long term answer. Roy Helu is the lone healthy running back and he’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Jabar Gaffney has 64 catches, Fred Davis has 59 catches, and Helu has 47 catches. Defensively Washington has 39 sacks, 16 fumble recoveries, and 12 interceptions with a minus 15 turnover ratio and they allow 336.5 yards and 22.2 points per game. London Fletcher has 163 tackles, DeAngelo Hall has 87 tackles, and Ryan Kerrigan has 7.5 sacks. The defense was clearly the stronger unit and the Redskins will need to evaluate the offense and directly address the big issues there.
Philadelphia is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against the NFC East, 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home games, and 1-6 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Washington is 4-0 against the spread following a loss, 6-1 against the spread against the NFC East, and 7-3 against the spread as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. The Road team has covered five in a row in this series.
The games between these two teams are traditionally low scoring and I don’t see why this one wouldn’t be as well.
Pick
Under 46
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | Tags: NFL betting, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins | Comments Closed
St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers look to earn a first round bye in the NFC playoffs as they visit the St. Louis Rams to close out their NFL regular season schedule. The 49ers are -10.5 point favorites over the Rams with an over/under point total set at 35.5
It’s been another disaster of a season for the St. Louis Rams as hopes for improvement and a possible playoff run will end with a season plagued by injuries and a possible number one overall draft choice. While last season the Rams improved to 7-9 and were on the cusp of making the playoffs this season they have won just twice and have lost their last six games in a row. Sam Bradford has all of the tools but he has been injured as has his backup A.J. Feeley so it should be Kellen Clemmons who has played decently in relief but with all of the QB’s available in this draft St. Louis will have plenty of decisions to make. Steven Jackson has been a workhorse once again rushing for 1,069 yards and five touchdowns with Cadillac Williams seeing time in relief. Brandon Lloyd has 45 catches and four touchdowns, Brandon Gibson has 35 catches, but Austin Pettis is suspended for the remainder of the year. The Rams defense has 36 sacks, 15 fumble recoveries, and 12 interceptions with a minus three turnover ratio and they allow 360.9 yards per game and 24.9 points. James Laurinaitis has 133 tackles, Quintin Mikell has 84 tackles, and Chris Long has 13 sacks. St. Louis has some quality young players but right now they look to be more than just a few players away from being competitive.
The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season and aside from just being an improved team they are one of the better teams in the NFL. Jim Harbaugh has had a monster first year as an NFL Head Coach and with a win the Niners secure a first round bye in the playoffs. QB Alex Smith has been one of the keys to success as he has efficiently thrown for 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. Frank Gore has been a force in the backfield rushing for 1,202 yards and eight touchdowns while Kendall Hunter has emerged as an effective backup. Micahael Crabtree has 64 catches and Vernon Davis has 59 catches and six touchdowns but the 49ers may be a target or two short. Defensively San Francisco has 38 sacks, 19 fumble recoveries, and 21 interceptions with a plus 26 turnover ratio and they allow 308.1 yards and 13.5 points per game. NaVorro Bowman has 133 tackles, Patrick Willis has been injured but has 93 tackles, and Aldon Smith has 14 sacks. The 49ers get it done with a running game and defense, a formula that has worked for as long as football has been a game.
St. Louis is 3-13 against the spread in their last 13 against NFC teams, 1-7-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven home games. San Francisco is 5-1-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 5-1 against the spread against the NFC West, and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games. The home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings of these two.
I like the 49ers to roll and cover the 10.5 point spread in this game.
Pick
San Francisco 49ers -10.5 St. Louis Rams
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The New England Patriots look to wrap of home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs as they host the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots are -13 point favorites over the Bills with an over/under point total set at 51.5.
The formula for the New England Patriots is simple: win and they secure home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. New England is coming off of a huge win where they rallied from 17 points down in the second half to beat the Miami Dolphins and put themselves in this position. There isn’t much more we can say about Tom Brady that hasn’t been said as he is a first ballot Hall of Fame QB and this season he has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 4,897 yards with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Stevan Ridley has taken over an increased role in the backfield but he still shares time with Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Brady continues to distribute the ball as Wes Welker has 116 catches for 1,518 and nine touchdowns, Rob Gronkowski has 82 catches and 15 touchdowns, and Aaron Hernandez has 2 catches and six touchdowns. Defensively the Patriots have 38 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, and 19 interceptions with a plus 14 turnover ratio while they allow and NFL worst 412.1 yards per game and 21.4 points per game. Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty each have 82 tackles and Jerrod Mayo has 89 tackles. If New England has a weakness it’s their defense but they have made it work by creating turnovers.
The Buffalo Bills got off to a hot start this season and looked to be heading places when they knocked off the New England Patriots when the two met earlier this season in Buffalo. As the year went on injuries and reality settled in for the Bills and once again we saw a team that simply has a lot of work left to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 62 percent of his passes for 3,525 yards with 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. C.J. Spiller had a huge game last week as he ran for 111 yards against the Broncos. Steve Johnson has 72 catches and six touchdowns and David Nelson has 59 catches and five touchdowns. The Buffalo defense has 24 sacks, 12 fumble recoveries, and 20 interceptions with a plus four turnover ratio and they allow 364.4 yards and 25.7 points per game. Nick Barnett has 119 tackles, George Wilson has 96 tackles, and Jarius Byrd has 95 tackles. Buffalo will have a lot of evaluating to do as they look to next year and beyond as far as personnel are concerned.
New England is 8-3 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against the AFC East, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite. Buffalo is 2-5-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games, and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games overall. The favorite is 13-5 against the spread in the last 18 meetings of these two.
With the Patriots favored by nearly two touchdowns it makes this a tough play but historically if New England has anything to play for at all whether it be week one or the Super Bowl they approach it the same way and look for them to do the same here as they stomp the Bills with revenge in mind.
Pick
New England Patriots -13 Buffalo Bills
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | Tags: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, NFL betting | Comments Closed
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets meet in a rivalry game to close out their 2011 NFL regular seasons in South Florida. The Dolphins are -1 point favorites over the Jets with an over/under point total set at 42.
It was a tale of two seasons for the Miami Dolphins with a miserable start followed a solid second half of the season making everyone wonder what happened the first half. Head Coach Tony Sporano has been shown the door and Todd Bowles has taken over on an interim basis but more than likely there are changes on the way in Miami. Matt Moore has been decent at QB filling in after Chad Henne went down but Miami still may be thinking QB in the upcoming NFL Draft though Moore has completed 59.8 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Reggie Bush has rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his NFL career as he’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry while also catching 43 passes. Brandon Marshall has had a comeback year with 77 catches for 1,177 yards and six touchdowns, Davone Bess has 45 catches, and Brian Hartline has 33 catches. Defensively Miami has 39 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, and 13 interceptions with a minus seven turnover ratio and they allow 343.2 yards and 19.7 points per game. Yeremiah Bell has 103 tackles, Karlos Dansby has 101 tackles, and Cameron Wake has 8.5 sacks. Miami would like nothing more than to drive the final nail in the coffin of the Jets’ season.
The New York Jets took a rough loss last Sunday at home to the New York Giants and with it Rex Ryan’s team took their playoff chances out of their own hands. At this point the Jets’ playoff hopes are slim as they need a win plus losses by Tennessee, and Cincinnati plus a loss by either Oakland or Denver. Mark Sanchez has had his share of ups and downs this season as he has completed 56.2 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Shonn Greene has rushed for 999 yards and six touchdowns while LaDanian Tomlinson looks to be at the end of his Hall of Fame career. Dustin Keller has 58 catches and four touchdowns, Santonio Holmes has 51 catches and eight touchdowns, and Plaxico Burress has 41 catches and eight touchdowns. Defensively New York has 34 sacks, 19 fumble recoveries, and 17 interceptions and they allow 318.9 yards and 22.9 points per game. Eric Smith has 85 tackles, David Harris has 84 tackles and four interceptions, and Darrelle Revis has four interceptions. Even if the Jets do make the playoffs this is a team that seriously will re-evaluate itself as an organization at the end of the year.
Miami is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games against AFC teams, 9-30 against the spread as a home favorite, and 6-0 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record. New York is 5-2 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a road underdog, and 9-2 against the spread as a road underdog of up to three points. The road team is 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings of these two and the underdog has covered in five of the last six meetings.
With the total at 42 the odds makers don’t expect much scoring here and neither do I as I see this one coming in under the total.
Pick
Under 42
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
The New Orleans Saints look to strengthen their case for a first round playoff bye as they host their arch rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, on Monday Night Football. The Saints are -6.5 point favorites over the Falcons with an over/under point total set at 52.
The New Orleans Saints lost on opening night to the Green Bay Packers when the clock expired and they were inches short of the goal line but Sean Peyton’s team has lost just twice since and have looked as impressive as anyone this year. The Saints had one goal this season and that was to win the Super Bowl and while other teams did nothing during the lockout New Orleans had player run practices to get prepared for the coming year. Drew Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season yardage record and with plenty still to play for the Saints won’t be resting him. For the year Brees has competed 71.5 percent of his passes for 4,780 yards and 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions which puts him just 304 yards behind Marino. New Orleans has one of the deepest backfields in the NFL but Mark Ingram won’t be playing in this one as he’s still nursing a toe injury but Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Chris Ivory are providing more than enough firepower and options. Jimmy Graham is the NFL season leader in touchdowns by a tight end with nine as he has 87 catches and 1,171 yards, sproles has 79 catches, and Marques Colston has 66 catches but the Saints have seven players with over 25 catches this year. Defensively New Orleans has 31 sacks, 15 fumble recoveries, and eight interceptions with a minus three turnover ratio while they allow 366.1 yards and 21.9 points per game. Roman Harper has 87 tackles and 7.5 sacks, Malcolm Jenkins has 76 tackles, and Patrick Robinson has three interceptions. New Orleans would like another chance to get the yard they came up short against the Packers.
The Atlanta Falcons have flown under the radar this year but regardless with a win in their final two games they clinch a playoff spot. Many thought Atlanta didn’t do enough to improve in the offseason but this is the best run of winning and playoff appearances in franchise history. Matt Ryan is the franchise and he has completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 3,698 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Michael Turner continues to run hard as he’s averaging 4.1 yards per carry for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns as he’s one of the few every down backs in the NFL. Roddy White has 85 catches for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns, Tony Gonzalez has 74 catches and seven touchdowns, and Julio Jones has 42 catches and five touchdowns. Defensively Atlanta has 30 sacks, 11 fumble recoveries, and 14 interceptions with a plus five turnover ratio while they allow 327.2 yards and 20.1 points per game. Curtis Lofton has 124 tackles, Sean Weatherspoon has 107 tackles, and John Abraham has 8.5 sacks. Atlanta has plenty to play for here as well as be inspired by the rivalry so look for the Falcons to be fired up from the get go.
New Orleans is 6-0 against the spread in their last six home games, 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, and 8-1 against the spread in their last nine home games against a team with a winning road record. Atlanta is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a road underdog, 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record, and 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games against a team with a winning home record. The underdog has covered five in a row in this series and the road team has covered four of the last five.
The total in this one is set at an aggressive 52 and the first meeting this year only yielded 49 points in a game that went to overtime. While I don’t love the number, I will go with the over.
Pick
Over 52
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | Tags: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, NFL betting | Comments Closed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks look to stay alive in the playoff race as they host the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday. The 49ers are -1.5 point favorites over the Seahawks with an over/under point total set at 38.
At this point making the playoffs is a longshot for the Seattle Seahawks as a win by both the Atlanta Falcons and the Detroit Lions in either of those teams final two games would eliminate their chances Pete Carroll’s team doesn’t look close to being ready to quit. The Seahawks have come on strong at the end of the year winning their last three games in a row. Tarvaris Jackson may never be a Pro Bowl caliber QB but he has been serviceable completing 60.7 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch has been running hard and strong rushing for 1,011 yards and 11 touchdowns carrying the bulk of the load for the Seattle ground game. Doug Baldwin was the big surprise at receiver this year leading the Seahawks with 46 catches while Ben Obamanu has 32 catches and Golden Tate has 27. Defensively the Seahawks allow 327 yards and 19.5 points per game and they haven’t allowed more than 14 points in any of their last three games. Earl Thomas has 88 tackles, David Hawthorne has 95, and Chris Clemons has 11 QB sacks. Seattle can look back at their schedule and a few games that got away from them may end up being the difference between them making the playoffs or watching them from home.
The San Francisco 49ers wrapped up the NFC West long ago but still haven’t sewn up a first round bye. The Niners are tied with the Saints for the second best record in the NFC but they hold the edge with the better conference record at this point. Alex Smith has been dependable yet unspectacular but he has gone from a castoff to a playoff starter in one year completing 61.4 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions. Frank Gore continues to get it done averaging 4.4 yards per carry for 1,119 yards and seven touchdowns and Kendall Hunter is emerging as a viable option to fill in when Gore takes a breather. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis account for the bulk of Smith’s completions with Davis scoring six touchdowns. The San Francisco defense has been outstanding allowing 311.1 yards per game and just 13.2 points, the fewest points in the NFL, and playing a physical brand of defense that lets the opposition know they are there. NaVorro Bowman has 121 tackles, Patrick Willis has 93 tackles despite being injured and missing action, and Aldon Smith broke the 49ers rookie sack record with 13 thus far. San Francisco doesn’t look spectacular getting it done but they are certainly making the most of what they have.
Seattle is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games against NFC teams, 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the NFC West, and 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games. San Francisco is 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 against NFC teams, 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games overall, and 8-2-1 against the spread following a win. The home team has covered five in a row in this series.
The total in this one is set at 38 and in a divisional game with two good defensive teams it falls under that number.
Pick
Under 38
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | Tags: NFL betting, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks | Comments Closed
