NFL
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
February 5, 2012 | 
Author The New England Patriots will be looking for payback after losing to the Giants just a few years ago in the Super Bowl. The Patriots are -3 point favorites over the Giants with an over/under point total set at 55.
The New England Patriots return to the Super Bowl once again this season led by their legendary head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. The Patriots have one of the more dynamic passing attacks in the league as Brady and company are ranked second in the NFL in passing yards per game at 317.8 per. The ground attack has been a different story, and if there is a weakness offensively for the Patriots this is definitely it. Defenses have been able to key against the pass and at times completely ignore the Patriots ground game, and this could play a factor in the Super Bowl as the Giants have some of the best pass rushers around, and if New York is able to pin their ears back and come after Brady without being concerned for the Patriots ground game it could be a long and painful night for Brady. The Patriots defensively have had issues all season, as the Patriots have struggled to get any sort of pass rush this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to pick apart the New England secondary. If the Patriots hope to slow down Eli and company they will need their veteran pass rusher Andre Carter to step up and get into the face and hit Manning. The Patriots defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship to advance to this year’s Super Bowl. The Patriots took just a 13-10 lead into the locker room against Baltimore, and after a hard fought second half the Pats prevailed on top 23-20. Brady struggled against the Ravens defense throwing for just 239 yards and two picks, although Brady did rush for one score in the fourth quarter which ended up being the difference.
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The New York Giants have definitely had an up and down season this year as the Giants started off hot out of the gate, and despite a mid season slump, New York got hot when it counted and made a dramatic run through the playoffs to earn their spot in this year’s Super Bowl against the Patriots. Eli Manning has had a career year, and if it weren’t for the seasons put up by Rodgers and Brees, there is a very good chance that Manning would be in MVP talks. The Giants passing attack finished the season ranked fifth in the league at 295 yards per game, and a huge reason for that is the emergence of Victor Cruz who has turned into one of the biggest weapons in the game. The New York ground attack may be ranked dead last in the NFL statistically, but don’t be fooled as the Giants can still run the ball behind Bradshaw and Jacobs and if New York can establish any sort of ground game against the Patriots look for Manning to utilize the play action pass effectively to keep the Pats off balance. Defensively the Giants have a very athletic defensive line that is capable of getting pressure on the quarterback without a lot of blitzing, allowing for the backers and secondary to remain in coverage. The New York defense is based around pressure on the quarterback, and look for New York to utilize some wrinkles defensively and use some inside stunts on the line to try and confuse the Patriots offensive line and allow pressure in the face of Brady. The New York Giants advanced to this year’s Super Bowl by defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. The Giants were in a dogfight the entire way against the 49ers who are one of the best coached and disciplined teams in the game. New York was able to avoid the big mistake, and take advantage of two key turnovers, one in overtime to prevail against the Niners 20-17. Eli Manning had a nice day against a relentless Niners pass rush as Manning threw for 316 yards and two scores against the San Francisco secondary. Look for the Giants to utilize a balanced attack offensively against the Patriots and rush just four against Brady trying to force pressure with their talented defensive line.
The total has gone over in seven of the last eight games for the Patriots, although New England is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against the Giants. The total has gone under in four of the last five games for the New York Giants, and the total has also gone under four of the last five times the Giants and Patriots have met.
With two elite quarterbacks battling it out it’s easy to get lost in the hype of the Manning/Brady match up. This game however should be decided up front in the trenches, and the Giants have a big advantage in that aspect. The Patriots had some trouble at times with the Ravens pass rush, and I expect the Giants to give the Pats trouble as well. Look for Brady to be under pressure the majority of the night, and while Brady and the Patriots will make some plays offensively I think the Patriots are just to one dimensional offensively. This should be a great one and will more than likely be decided in the fourth quarter, but I like the Giants to not only get the cover against the Pats, but defeat New England outright once again and take the Lombardi Trophy back to New York.
Pick
New York Giants +3.5 New England Patriots
Posted in NFL, Sportsbook | 
Tags: New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL betting, Superbowl, superbowl betting | 
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New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers
The New York Giants punched their ticket to San Fran on Sunday when the Giants upset the mighty Green Bay Packers on Sunday in Green Bay. The 49ers are -2 point favorites over the Giants with an over/under point total set at 44.
The San Francisco 49ers had a tough task ahead of them last Saturday when the Niners and their stingy and aggressive defense had to face the record setting Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. The 49ers play “throwback” football where the Niners like to run the ball, control the ball through efficient passing and play outstanding defense. San Fran also is one of the best teams in forcing their opponent into mistakes as the Niners have forced over 40 turnovers this season. Alex Smith was almost run out of town last season, and now Smith is the hero of the Niners and under new head coach Jim Harbaugh has completely resurrected his career. Smith threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints while not throwing one INT. The Forty Niners are going to have to stop Eli Manning and the Giants offense on Sunday and to do that the Niners will try and get pressure in the face of Manning. Aldon Smith the rookie first round pick for the Niners this season leads the team with 14 sacks and will be a key weapon against the Giants on Sunday.
The New York Giants are without a doubt one of the hottest and most dangerous teams in the NFL right now. The Giants basically had a “play-in” game where the Giants had to face the Cowboys in week 17 with the winner advancing to the playoffs. New York dominated the Cowboys in week 17, and since then New York has looked like one of, if not the best team in football. If it weren’t for the seasons of Brees and Rodgers, Eli Manning could very well be this year’s MVP. Manning threw for an incredible 4,933 yards in the regular season, and thus far into the postseason the Giants signal caller has thrown for over 600 yards in two games. The Achilles heel for the Giants this season has been their ground attack as the ground game was ranked last in the NFL, however the Giants have rejuvenated the ground attack the past few weeks, and Manning has simply been deadly with play action passes down the field off the play action. Defensively the Giants have a relentless pass rush that can force turnovers and make life miserable for quarterbacks.
The Niners are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Giants, and the total has gone under in 8 of the last 12 games for San Francisco. The Giants are 5-1 in their last six games, and the total has gone over in four of the last five road games for New York.
This is a tough call, and honestly I cannot wait for Sunday night to watch these two teams go at it for the right to play in the super bowl. The Forty Niners are winning the old fashioned way, but it can’t be ignored that even though the Niners jumped out to an early lead against the Saints, and forced five turnovers in the game, New Orleans still lead with under two minutes remaining. Jim Harbaugh is a shoe in for coach of the year and the Niners are one of this season’s best stories, but I think the Giants are playing better than anyone in the league right now, and I have a hard time betting against Manning as Eli is playing as good or better than anyone in the quarterback position.
Pick
New York Giants +2 San Francisco 49ers
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New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens and their suffocating defense head to Foxboro on Sunday to face Tom Brady and their dynamic Patriots offense. The Patriots are -6.5 point favorites over the Ravens with an over/under point total set at 48.
The New England Patriots advance to the AFC Championship on Sunday after the Pats completely dismantled Denver and the Fighting Tebows. Denver was completely outmatched against the Pats as Tom Brady had one of the finest games a quarterback has ever had in a playoff game. The Patriots took an early 14-0 lead in the first quarter after Brady touchdown passes to Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. The Broncos looked like they were going to make things interesting early on in the second quarter when Willis McGahee scampered in from the five for a score. Denver closed the lead to seven, and then Brady went to work. The Patriots followed the Broncos score by scoring 28 consecutive points and putting the Broncos away for good. Brady finished with 366 yards on the day and six touchdowns against just one interception. If this Pats offense is still firing this weekend against the Ravens like it was against the Broncos, it could be a long day for Baltimore.
The Baltimore Ravens advance in the AFC Playoffs after a solid victory against a very good Houston Texans team. The Ravens defeated the Texans 20-13, and the difference in this one was the turnovers by Houston. T.J. Yates did a decent job considering he is a rookie, making a second playoff start, but the Ravens had the answer for Yates and his buddies on the Houston offense and Ray Lewis and company took care of business. Ed Reed was injured late in the game as the Texans threw a fourth down hail mary trying to tie things up, and as Reed was limping off the field keeping his ankle off the turf Ravens fans everywhere held their breath. There is no “official” word as to whether or not Reed will be active against the Pats, but the x-rays are negative so I’m guessing we will see him on the field on Sunday. Joe Flacco catches a lot of flack for his play in Baltimore, and while Flacco will more than likely never have the numbers of some of the elite quarterbacks in this league, Flacco is a proven winner. One thing about Baltimore, you know who they are and what they want to do. The Ravens are going to do whatever they can to get the ball into Ray Rice’s hands, and that, combined with stifling defense has been Baltimore’s recipe for success these past few seasons.
The Patriots are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games, and the total has gone over in all five of the last five games for New England. Baltimore is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, and just 1-4-2 against the spread in their last seven games against New England on the road.
We saw it this past weekend, and we see it again here. You have a team that can score from anywhere with one of the top quarterbacks in the game, and on the other side of the coin you have a “throwback” team that likes to run the ball, play great defense and limit the other team’s offensive opportunities. I think the Pats get the win at home against the Ravens on Sunday, but I just can’t give Baltimore that many points. Flacco has looked really good at times, and while nobody will confuse Flacco with Brady, I like the balanced attack by the Ravens to put up enough points, and stop the Pats just enough to get a close cover on Sunday in the AFC Championship.
Pick
Baltimore Ravens +6.5 New England Patriots
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New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers begin defense of the Super Bowl crown as they host the New York Giants in the final NFL Playoff game of the weekend. The Packers are -9 point favorites over the Giants with an over/under point total set at 51.5.
The Green Bay Packers have been the best team in football during the regular season and posted the best record but they know as well as anyone after winning the Lombardi Trophy as a Wild Card team a year ago that anything can happen in the second season that is the playoffs. The Packers looked to have a chance to be one of the few NFL teams in history to go undefeated during the regular season but the dream died in Kansas City when we were once again reminded why so few teams have ever accomplished that feat. Aaron Rodgers didn’t have the most yards in the NFL this season, he wasn’t even all that close but his efficiency is what should make him the NFL MVP as he completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,643 yards with 45 touchdowns and six interceptions. Ryan Grant returned from injury and he combined with James Starks and Brandon Saine gave Green Bay a potent and diverse attack out of the backfield. Greg Jennings ended the regular season injured but he will be back for this one as he has 67 catches and nine touchdowns, Jordy Nelson had 68 catches and 15 touchdowns, and Jermichael Finley returned to have 55 catches and eight touchdowns despite dropping several easy catches. Statistically the Packers had the worst defense in the NFL allowing 411.6 yards and 22.4 points per game but they had a plus 24 turnover ratio with 31 interceptions and 13 fumble recoveries. Charles Woodson had seven interceptions, Charlie Peprah had five interceptions, and Desmond Bishop had 115 tackles. Green Bay is going to be a handful and if their defense can come together in the last few games like it did a year ago they are going to be very tough to beat.
The New York Giants had a chance to beat the Green Bay Packers just a few weeks ago but they were unable to do so losing by three at home. The Giants earned another crack at the defending Super Bowl champs by pounding Atlanta, stopping them on two fourth down attempts, and making them pay. Another Super Bowl ring would take Eli Manning’s status to a new level and he looked determined against the Falcons completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 277 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw split carries evenly at 14 a piece with Jacobs averaging 6.6 yards and Bradshaw averaging 4.5 yards. Hakeem Nicks was a difference maker catching six passes for 115 yards and two touchdowns including a 72 yarder that was a back breaker while Mario Manningham had four catches and a touchdown and Victor Cruz had two catches. The Giants defense was stout against the Falcons and while they didn’t force any turnovers and had just two sacks, they came up big with Atlanta’s only points coming on a safety. Antrel Rolle and Chase Balckburn had nine tackles each and Jason Pierre-Paul had eight. The Giants were very close to knocking off the Packers in their last meeting but it will take a much bigger effort in January at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay is 8-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 4-0 against the spread in their last four playoff games, and 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games against NFC teams. New York is 6-0 against the spread in their last six road playoff games, 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog, and 5-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The road team has covered in five of the last seven meetings of these two and the underdog has covered in four of the last five.
The total in this one opened at 51 and shot up to 52.5 but I still have it going over that number.
Pick
Over 51.5
New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jim Harbaugh’s San Francisco 49ers are hoping that the turf of Candlestick Park can slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints high powered offense. The Saints are -3 point favorites over the 49ers with an over/under point total set at 47.
The San Francisco 49ers completed a dramatic turnaround this season and finished with an outstanding 13-3 mark and an NFC West divisional title. Jim Harbaugh is almost assured to win coach of the year after turning around a San Francisco team in such a dramatic way with a limited off season and no OTA’s. The 49ers play football “the old fashioned way” by playing stellar defense and not committing turnovers and taking advantage of the other team’s mistakes. The 49ers passing attack is ranked 29th in the NFL as Alex Smith is your prototypical “game manager” who makes key throws when needed and avoids the costly mistake. The Niners prefer to run the ball and control the clock, and San Fran has been very successful in doing so this season with the league’s 8th ranked rushing attack, behind 1,000 yard rusher Frank Gore. Defensively the Niners are stout, with the league’s best run defense and the 16th best defense in the NFL against the pass. If the 49ers are going to win, San Francisco will need to control the clock limiting Drew Brees’ snaps and play mistake free football – which with a turnover ratio of +28 this season, we know is very possible.
The New Orleans Saints defeated the Detroit Lions in the wild card round of the playoffs this past Saturday, and New Orleans looked impressive as ever doing so. The Saints offense is just simply amazing as Drew Brees is one of the more accurate quarterbacks I have ever seen. Brees threw for over 460 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions, without throwing one interception. The Saints also have a good ground game to go with their dynamic passing attack, and it will be interesting to see if the Saints are able to move the ball, and keep from being one dimensional against the NFL’s best rush defense in the 49ers. This season’s New Orleans Saints defense reminds me a lot of their defense a couple years ago when New Orleans won it all. The Saints will allow you to move the ball and put points on the board, but if New Orleans can force a turnover or two and give their offense that many more possessions, it’s over. One factor that should be noted is the turf of Candlestick. The Saints offense isn’t as effective on grass as it is in a dome with New Orleans scoring 23 in Jacksonville, 20 in Tampa, and 22 in Tennessee.
While playing on a grass field this season; the San Francisco 49ers are 9-2 overall, and 9-1 against the spread. The Saints are 3-2 overall on grass and 2-3 against the spread. The 49ers are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games, and the total has gone over in all five of the 49ers last five home games against the Saints. The total has gone over in four of the last five games for the New Orleans Saints.
This should be an incredible game to watch as you have your prototypical defense vs. offensive matchup. I am interested to see how the Saints perform on grass, but when you have Brees under center you should always feel confident about your situation, no matter what is under your feet. I think the line is just about right, and I hate going against a home dog with the better defense in the playoffs, but Brees is just that dynamic of a talent. Should be a great game, but I like the Saints to get the close cover with a late score in San Francisco.
Pick
New Orleans Saints -3 San Francisco 49ers
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Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos meet on Saturday night in Foxboro to decide who will punch their ticket to play in the AFC Championship game. The Patriots are -13.5 point favorites over the Broncos with an over/under point total set at 49.5.
The New England Patriots have been a team on a mission and that mission is to get back to and with the Super Bowl. After a disappointing loss to the Giants a few years back and some playoff missteps the Pats are back in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy and they have home field advantage in the AFC for as long as they remain in it. Tom Brady has had another monster year in his Hall of Fame career completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 5,235 yards with 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It has been running back by committee and BeJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead carried the load the bulk of the season it has been Stevan Ridley getting it done of late averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Wes Welker had 122 catches and nine touchdowns while Rob Gronkowski had 90 catches and 17 touchdowns and was nearly impossible to stop. The New England defense was second to last in the NFL allowing 411.1 yards and 21.4 points per game but they were plus 17 in turnovers with 23 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries and that made all the difference. Kyle Arrington had seven interceptions and 88 tackles, Jerrod Mayo had 95 tackles, and Andre Carter came on with 10 sacks. It isn’t a typical Bill Belichick team in the way they get it done but they are typical in the respect that they do get it done.
The Denver Broncos have surprised a lot of people all season long and they once again surprised many as they knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. John Fox’s Broncos have gone from a top five drafting team to two wins from the Super Bowl and it has truly been a magical ride. Tim Tebow has been the story for Denver and his performance in the opening round of the playoffs were typical of what we have seen from him all year as he completed 47.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns but one of his 10 total completions was taken to the house in overtime for the win. Willis Mcgahee was stoned for much of the game against the Steers gaining just 61 yards though Tebow ran one in. Demaryius Thomas had a breakout game catching four passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, the game winner in overtime while Eddie Royal had three catches and a touchdown. It was a team effort on defense for Denver but they did allow some big runs and 400 yards of offense, most of it in the second half when their lead evaporated. David Burton had eight tackles, Joe Mays had six tackles, and Robert Ayers had two of Denver’s five sacks. The Broncos were obliterated at home by the Patriots just a few weeks back and it will take a monster effort and some breaks to flip flop those results.
New England is 11-5 against the spread against the AFC, 0-6 against the spread in their last six playoff games, and 3-14 against the spread as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. Denver is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog, 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall. Denver has covered in five of their last six trips to New England.
The total in this one is set at 51 and it’s been dropping and it may continue to fall but I see this one going over as both teams will be moving the ball so the over will be my pick.
Pick
Over 49.5
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
The Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans kick off Sunday NFL Playoff action as they meet in Baltimore. The Ravens are -7 point favorites over the Texans with an over/under point total set at 36.5.
The Baltimore Ravens had their share of ups and downs this season but when all was said and done they were the AFC North champions and earned a first round bye in the playoffs. After a week off the Ravens return to the field and while this team is a blend of younger and older players the week of rest couldn’t do anything but help this team. Joe Flacco didn’t have a stellar year as he completed 57.6 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and while his numbers are modest, they are an improvement over where they were earlier in the year. Ray Rice has done it all for Baltimore rushing for 1,364 yards and 12 touchdowns and catching 76 passes but Ricky Williams has played well in his situational chances. Anquan Boldin saw a ton of coverage and he caught 57 passes, Ed Dickson had 54 catches and five touchdowns but had some easy drops, and Torrey Smith emerged with 50 catches and seven touchdowns. The Ravens allowed just 288.9 yards and 16.6 points per game with a plus two turnover ratio, the result of 15 interceptions and 21 fumble recoveries. Lardarius Webb had five interceptions while Ray Lewis had 95 tackles despite missing action and Terrell Suggs had 14 sacks. The Ravens have thrown up some poor efforts at times but most of those came on the road.
Before the season began the Houston Texans didn’t have a playoff appearance, after last Saturday they now have a playoff win. The Texans shook of an early deficit to the Cincinnati Bengals and won going away to make it to be two games from the Super Bowl. T.J. Yates played well within himself completing just 55 percent of his passes with a touchdown but no interceptions and he had a few passes dropped. Arian Foster ran with a purpose for 153 yards and two touchdowns and Ben Tate carried nine times with a 4.1 yards per carry average. Andre Johnson looked rusty catching five passes and touchdown and Owen Daniels took some big hits catching two passes in traffic. The Houston defense allowed just 285.7 yards and 17.4 points per game all season and they were rock solid agin on Saturday sacking Andy Dalton four times and picking him off three times. J.J. Watt had an interception return for a touchdown and Danieal manning and Jonathan Joseph each had interceptions and Brian Cushing had eight tackles. The Texans appeared unfazed by it being their first time in the playoffs and they will need to keep the same focus in their first road playoff game.
Baltimore is 5-0-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 4-1 against the spread in their last five playoff games as a favorite, and 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five home games. Houston is 4-0-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, and 5-1-2 against the spread against AFC teams. Baltimore has covered in four of the last five meetings of these two.
The total opened at 38 and has been sliding ever since but while I see it to be fairly low scoring, it’s getting a little out of hand and for my pick I will play the over.
Pick
Over 36.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet at Mile High for the final game of the Wildcard round of the NFL playoffs. The Steelers are -8 point favorites over the Broncos with an over/under point total set at 34.5.
The Denver Broncos didn’t finish the season with any kind of momentum playing poorly and losing their last three games. While some may say John Fox’s Broncos backed into the playoffs, they did what they need to do over the course of the season to make a playoff berth possible. The big story in Denver this season was Tim Tebow who didn’t put together any kind of passing numbers, completing just 46.5 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 660 yards and six touchdowns, but Tebow engineered and delivered some of the most amazing and improbable comeback wins. Willis McGahee had a comeback year averaging 4.8 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns while gaining 1,199 yards. With the Broncos muted passing numbers the receivers’ numbers aren’t impressive but they have a nice future as Eric Decker caught 44 passes and had eight touchdowns and Demaryius Thomas 32 catches and four touchdowns. Defensively Denver allowed 357.8 yards and 24.4 yards while grabbing nine interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, and netting 41 sacks. Wesley Woodyard had 97 tackles, D.J. Williams had 90 tackles while Von Miller had 11.5 sacks and Elvis Dumervil had 9.5 sacks. Denver looked like their magic was fading fast in the final few weeks and they will need to recapture it to have any chance here.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are back in the playoffs and after losing in the Super Bowl last season they are looking for retribution this year. It hasn’t been easy for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh as they have been targeted everywhere they go and by this time of the year the big hits they have delivered and have taken have all added up. Ben Roethlisberger has been able to stay standing after being hit in the pocket plenty this year but the hits have added up with him being hobbled and sidelined at points but for the year he has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 4,077 yards with 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Rashard Mendenhall is gone for the playoffs with a torn ACL so it will be Isaac Redma and Mewelde Moore trying to fill in. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown each had breakout years with Wallace having 72 catches and eight touchdowns and Antonio Brown catching 69 passes and each of them gaining over 1,100 yards. Defensively no one did it better than the Steelers as they allowed just 271.8 yards and 14.2 points per game and they had 35 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, and 11 interceptions. Ryan Clark had 100 tackles but he will not be playing in this one but Lawrence Timmons had 93 tackles, Troy Polamalu had 91 tackles, and LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison had nine sacks each. The Pittsburgh Steelers have plenty of post season experience up and down the roster.
Denver is 5-1 against the spread in their last six home playoff games, 0-4 against the spread in their last four games overall, and 2-6-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 playoff games, 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road games, and 10-2 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover. The underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings of these two.
The total opened at 35.5 and quickly dropped to 34.5 but I still see it staying under at that number as this one is a fast moving game belonging to the defenses.
Pick
Under 34.5
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New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons
The New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons meet on Sunday in a first round NFC Playoff game. The Giants are -3 point favorites over the Falcons with an over/under point total set at 48.
It took them until the final week of the regular season to punch their ticket but the New York Giants are the NFC East Champions and are hosting a Wildcard Playoff game. The Giants defeated the Cowboys and despite a stretch in the second half of the year where they lost five of six games, it was enough to win what many thought would be one of the better divisions in football, though it certainly came up well short of being that. Eli Manning began the season claiming he was one of the elite QB’s in the NFL and he put up big numbers completing 61 percent of his passes for 4.933 yards with 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The New York running game struggled when each back was on their own but they were much better when all were healthy and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for over 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Giants started the year with what looked like a patchwork receiving corps but Victor Cruz caught 82 passes for 1,526 yards and nine touchdowns and Hakeem Nicks had 76 catches for 1,192 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively the Giants had 20 interceptions, 13 fumble recoveries, and 48 sacks. Antrel Rolle had 96 tackles, Jason Pierre-Paul had 16.5 sacks, and Carey Webster had six interceptions. At time the Giants have looked like they can beat anyone, at other times they have looked like they could lose to anyone.
The Atlanta Falcons quietly went about their business this season winning three of their last four games and five of their last seven games. The Falcons continue with their best run in the history of the franchise as up until last year they had never been to the playoffs in back to back seasons. Matt Ryan took some shots in the pocket but he has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Michael Turner was a workhorse in the backfield averaging 4.5 yards per carry for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. Roddy White had 100 catches and eight touchdowns, Tony Gonzalez had 80 catches and seven touchdowns, and Julio Jones had 54 catches and eight touchdowns. Defensively Atlanta allows 333.6 yards per game and 21.9 points while they have 19 interceptions, 33 sacks, and 13 fumble recoveries. Curtis Lofton has 147 tackles, Sean Weatherspoon has 115 tackles, and John Abraham has 9.5 sacks. All of the Falcons’ last four losses were to playoff teams.
New York is 5-1 against the spread in their last six playoff games, 4-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall. Atlanta is 1-3-1 against the spread following a win, 1-4 against the spread in their last five playoff games, and 0-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The road team has covered eight in a row in games played between these two.
While both of these teams have proud defenses, their pride probably isn’t going to help them shut down the offenses they’ll be facing here and with the total at 48 I look for it to go over pretty easily.
Pick
Over 48
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
The New Orleans Saints begin their quest to get back to the Super Bowl as they host the Detroit Lions in the NFC Playoffs Wildcard round. The Saints are -10.5 point favorites over the Lions with an over/under point total set at 58.5.
The New Orleans Saints had only one goal this season: to win the Super Bowl. While the Saints won the NFC South and Drew Brees broke one of the oldest passing records in the NFL, the Saints fell short of a first round bye or home field advantage but at the very least they are in the playoffs. Brees had a monster year by any standards completing 71.2 percent of his passes for an NFL record 5,476 yards with 46 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Mark Ingram is gone for the season in the backfield but New Orleans has a stable of capable backs with Pierre Thomas running between the tackles and Darren SProles who does a lot of everything rushing for 6.9 yards per carry and catching 86 passes for seven touchdowns. Brees found Jimmy Graham 99 times this season with 11 of those going for touchdowns while marquis Colston had 80 catches and eight touchdowns and Lance Moore had 52 catches and eight touchdowns. The Saints defense allows 368.4 yards and 21.2 points with just nine interceptions, 17 fumble recoveries, and 33 sacks and they have an uncharacteristic minus three turnover ratio. Roman Harper is doing it all with 96 tackles and 7.5 sacks, Macolm Jenkins has 76 tackles, and Jo-Lonn Dunbar has emerged with 79 tackles after Jon Vilma was injured much of the season. The Saints have the ability to score on every play but when they won the Super Bowl they scored a lot of defensive touchdowns and the lack of turnovers is what has been the big missing piece this year. The Saints won eight gaes in a row to close out the season
The Detroit Lions were everyone’s preseason pick to be one of the more improved teams in football and while they stumbled a little in the middle of the year they won three games before losing the season finale at Green Bay to seal their spot in the post season. It’s clear the Lions are still a team that is building and that will get better but we will find out in this one just how far along they are and just how far they have to go. Matthew Stafford stayed healthy for the first time in his NFL career throwing for 5,038 yards completing 63.5 percent of his passes with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The running game has been by committee in Detroit but it has really been non-existent as Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris both see action. Calvin Johnson is one of the best receivers in the NFL and he had 96 catches for 1,681 yards with 16 touchdowns, Brandon Pettigrew had 83 catches and five touchdowns, and Nate Burleson had 73 catches while Titus Young continues to emerge as a factor and a reliable target. The Lions defense allows 367.6 yards and 24.2 points while sacking opposing QB’s 41 times, recovering 17 fumbles, and grabbing 21 interceptions for a plus 11 turnover ratio. Stephen Tulloch has 111 tackles, DeAndre Levy has 109 tackles, and Cliff Avril has 11 sacks. The Lions lost less than a month ago in New Orleans when Stafford threw for over 400 yards but they managed just 17 points.
New Orleans is 7-0 against the spread following a win, 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games overall, and 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 home games. Detroit is 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four road games.
While just 48 points were scored when these two teams met in early December the total here is set two scores higher at 58.5 and I can see it getting over that number.
Pick
Over 58.5
