NBA
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
May 6, 2012 | 
Author The Miami Heat look to close out the series today against the New York Knicks in Game 4. The Heat are -8 point favorites over the Knicks with an over/under point total set at 183.
Head to head, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York, while the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, but just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Heat on the other hand are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite, but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
If ever the Knicks had a chance to get back into this series it was in the opening half of Game 3. New York led by double digits half way through the second quarter on Thursday night and should have probably been more, however they let the Heat get to within four points heading into the major break and the rest was history. With the 87-70 defeat, the Knicks have now lost 13 straight playoff games and their chances to upset Maimi are all but dead.
If you told me the Knicks were getting eight points at home against anyone in the league during the last month of the regular season I would have taken that in a heart beat. However, as it stands New York don’t stand a chance in my eyes. If ever they were going to get a win it would of been in Game 3, and they had a great chance to take a commanding lead into half time and didn’t go it. The Heat have now beaten the Knicks all six times this season by double digits or greater, why not again?
Pick
Miami Heat -8 New York Knicks
Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers
The Orlando Magic look to even things up against the Indiana Pacers in Game 4 from Orlando. The Pacers are -5 point favorites over the Magic with an over/under point total set at 181.5.
Head to head, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5, but just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Pacers on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite.
After their surprising loss in Game 1, the Pacers have recorded back to back statement wins to take control of this best of seven series. With Dwight Howard sidelined, Orlando were always going to be up against it, however they managed to steal the opening game of this series 81-77, thanks to a late charge that was capped off by a Jason Richardson three pointer. The Magic also looked good in the opening half of Game 2, however it’s been all Indiana ever since, winning the last two games by an average of 19 points.
As dominate as the Pacers have been in this series, the Magic can even things up with a win here. While they still have talent on the roster, they are clearly missing Howard, on both offense and defence. With no real post options, Orlando have really struggled to score as they have yet to reach 80 points in this series. I’m sure the effort will be there, but that can only carry you so far.
Pick
Indiana Pacers -5 Orlando Magic
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The series shifts to Los Angeles as the Clippers take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 3. The Clippers are -3 point favorites over the Grizzlies with an over/under point total set at 187.
Head to head, the Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, while the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite, but just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Grizzlies on the other hand are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
After their monumental collapse in Game 1, the Grizzlies managed to bounce back in Game 2 on Wednesday to even the series at one game apiece. Memphis, who surrendered a 27 point lead in Game 1 of this series, trailed in the opening quarter on Wednesday night, however a strong second quarter saw them hit the front and never look back as they came away with the 105-98 victory.
Even though the Clippers stole Game 1, I still expect the Grizzlies to take this series, which would entail winning at least one of the next two games. When you looked at it, Memphis have pretty much dominated the first two games of this series, bar the last quarter in Game 1 obviously. I can understand why Los Angeles look appealing as a small home favorite, however I like Memphis here. The Grizzlies won’t be fazed playing away, while I think the Clippers might be a little tight playing in their first home playoff game in a long time. I’m not sure who wins this one, but I think it’s going to be really tight.
Pick
Memphis Grizzlies +3 Los Angeles Clippers
Posted in NBA, Sportsbook | 
Tags: Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, NBA betting | 
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets look to get one back from the Los Angeles Lakers as they get set for Game 3 tonight. The Nuggets are -4 point favorites over the Lakers with an over/under point total set at 204.
After taking the first game of the series by 103-88, the Lakers were set for a tougher contest from the Nuggets in game two and that’s exactly what they got, as Ty Lawson scored 25 points and seven assists to lead six Nuggets in double figures in scoring. However, the problem was that Lawson just didn’t receive enough support from other scorers like Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo and Andre Miller who combined for just 24 points on nine of 34 shooting. On the bright side, the loss came with its positives as the Nuggets showed glimpses of how dangerous they can be as they unleashed their running game and reduced a 19-point deficit to four late in the game.
As for the Lakers, Kobe Bryant was sensational once again, scoring 38 points on 15 on 29 shooting, while Andrew Bynum added 27 points and nine rebounds against the undersized Nuggets. However, I think people are not giving Pau Gasol the praise he deserves, as he never demanded the ball, but still managed to put together solid numbers of 13 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.
While the Lakers will be satisfied with a 2-0 series lead going into Denver, game three will provide a totally different challenge, because the Nuggets are beginning to look threatening and can certainly win tonight if they get more out of Afflalo and Gallinari. In front of a parochial home crowd, I actually think that the Nuggets have a real good chance to win tonight, but I just can’t resist taking the Lakers with the points in this one. Based on value, I’m taking the Lakers.
Pick
Los Angeles Lakers +4 Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
The series shifts to the Garden as the Boston Celtics play host to the Atlanta Hawks for game three tonight. The Celtics are -7.5 point favorites over the Hawks.
No Rondo? No worries. The Celtics were able to avoid falling into a 2-0 hole, because of 36 points and 14 rebounds from Paul Pierce, who led the men in green to an important 87-80 victory at Atlanta in game two. In addition, Kevin Garnett had a solid 15 points and 12 rebounds, while Avery Bradley stepped into Rondo’s shoes and had 14 points in 42 minutes.
As for the Hawks, Joe Johnson led the way with his 22 points, while Jeff Teague was right behind him with 18 points of his own. However, the story of the night is about Josh Smith who scored 16 points and 12 rebounds before he injured his knee when he collided into Garnett on a play. Smith will test out his injured knee during the shootaround prior to game three, so his status for game three is completely in the air.
The Celtics were favorites to win this series, but I would seriously doubt their chances if they lost game two. As it stands, the Hawks blew a massive chance to go 2-0 against the C’s and if Smith doesn’t suit up, I don’t see how they will have enough to change the momentum of the series tonight. The line for this one looks a little high, but I can’t see how you can take the Hawks here.
Pick
Boston Celtics -7.5 Atlanta Hawks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls look to bounce back against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 on Friday night. The 76ers are -2 point favorites over the Bulls with an over/under point total set at 178.5.
The 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, but just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 18-38 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bulls on the other hand are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games and 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a S.U. loss, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Just as it looked like the Bulls were going to take a 2-0 lead and command of this series, the 76ers surprised everyone by dominating the second half of Tuesday nights game in Chicago, outscoring the Bulls 36-14 in the pivitol third quarter. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose, who’s season ended after he tore his ACL in the closing stages of Game 1′s 103-91 victory, Chicago didn’t skip a beat in the first half, holding a 55-47 advantage. However, that lead quickly evaporated in the second half as Philly dominated every aspect of the game, shooting 59% for the game en route to a 109-92 win.
It’s been two days and I still don’t know what to make of Chicago’s second half on Tuesday night. The Bulls pride themselves on outworking their opponents and rarely do you see them get dominated liked they did. So what expect going forward? Personally, I’m not going to over react over one bad half and I think the Bulls re-group and take control of the series here. This is still the same Chicago team that finished first in the East without Rose for half of the season and likewise, Philly is 16-23 in their last 39 overall. I was all in on the Bulls in Game 2 and I was way wrong, but I’m willing to take my chances again.
Pick
Chicago Bulls +2 Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
The New York Knicks return home looking to get one back against the Miami Heat in Game 3 on Thursday night. The Heat are -5.5 point favorites over the Knicks with an over/under point total set at 186.
Head to head, the Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York, while the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games overall, but just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Heat on the other hand are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Miami Heat continued their dominance over the New York Knicks on Friday night, cruising to a 104-94 victory to improve to 2-0 in their best of seven series. After their 33 point beat down in Game 1, the Knicks were much more competitive on Monday night, however they never really challenged Miami who dealt them their 12th postseason loss in a row. Not only did they fall two games behind in the series, but they also lost Amare Stoudamire for Game 3 and possibly more after he punched the case around a fire extinguisher after the game and cut his hand on some glass.
With Stoudamire to miss tonight’s game, not many people are giving the Knicks a chance here. However, New York have played much better with Stoudamire out of the lineup, going 9-4 during his recent 13 game absence. The Heat have taken all five meetings against the Knicks this season by eight points or greater and that could very well happen tonight, however lets not forget this is the same Miami team that struggled on the road for most of the season. The Knicks know this is pretty much the series here and with them being back in front of their home crowd, I think they can keep this one close enough.
Pick
New York Knicks +5.5 Miami Heat
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The series shifts to Texas as the Oklahoma City Thunder pay a visit to the Dallas Mavericks for Game Three tonight. The Mavericks are -1 point favorites over the Thunder with an over/under point total set at 195.
Game one of the series went to the Thunder with the help of a “lucky” bounce from a Kevin Durant game winner and the sequel provided another close finish as the Thunder won by 102-99 to take a 2-0 series lead.
For OKC, Russell Westbrook led the way with 29 points on 10 of 21 shooting, but had just two assists at the point position. Not for the first time this season, he took more shots than Kevin Durant, but you can certainly make the argument that he had to, because Durant made just five of 17 shots to finish with 26 points and 10 rebounds. In fact, Durant has now combined for 15 of 44 shooting in games one and two, while Westbrook has made a combined 23 of 44 of his shots. The Mavs’ defense on Durant has really hurt his field goal percentage, but KD still managed to hurt the Mavs from the charity stripe with 14 of 16 made free throws, while the rest of the OKC team made a perfect 23 of 23.
For the Mavs, Dirk Nowitzki led the way with a game-high 31 points on 10 of 19 shooting, including a perfect 11 of 11 from the line, but he just didn’t receive as much support as he did in game one. For instance, Jason Terry had 20 points in game one, but just 13 points in game two, while Vince Carter followed up his 13 points with just five in game two. Furthermore, the Mavs made just five of 23 from the three-point line, but as bad as they were shooting as a team, they were still in with a real chance at the end and will consider themselves a little unlucky for winning either of the first two games.
The first two games of this series has probably been a lot closer than most would’ve predicted, so you have to give credit to the Mavs for battling tough through the first two games. However, the fact remains that they are down 2-0 and will need to win game three or they will have to come back from a 3-0 deficit, a feat that has never been achieved in NBA history. Based on the desperation factor and what is at stake, I think the Mavs will grab their first win of the series and cover the spread.
Pick
Dallas Mavericks -1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Posted in NBA, Sportsbook | Tags: Dallas Mavericks, NBA betting, Oklahoma City Thunder | No Comments »
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics collide in the opening round of the playoffs from Phillips Arena. The Hawks are -1.5 point favorites over the Celtics with an over/under point total set at 180.
Head to head, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Celtics on the other hand are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
You can make the case that the Boston Celtics are one of, if not the most in-form team in the Eastern Conference after finishing with a 24-10 record since the All-Star break. It’s been an impressive turn around for a team many people thought didn’t have a chance after the opening months of the season. Meanwhile, the Hawks have also been impressive in their own right, managing to finish top four in the East after Al Horford went down with a serious injury at the start of the season. Led by Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, the Hawks were again a dominate team at home, finishing with a 23-10 record at Phillips Arena.
You wouldn’t think it, but the Hawks have the edge over the Celtics in recent meetings, winning six of the past 10 between the two. Having said that, Boston did take two of the three regular season contests this season. In those three games, the final margins were all under five points, telling us these teams play it close.
Most of the early money is coming in for the Celtics here, but I don’t see it that way. Boston are in great form heading into these playoffs, but so is Atlanta as they have won five of their last six regular season games, with the only loss in tha stretch coming against the New York Knicks by a sinlge point. The Hawks seem to matchup well with the Celtics and being that they are one of the better home teams in the league, I think they get the win first up.
Pick
Atlanta Hawks -1.5 Boston Celtics
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
The Miami Heat and New York Knicks collide on the opening night of the playoffs from South Beach. The Heat are -8.5 point favorites over the Knicks with an over/under point total set at 187.
Head to head, the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, but just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Knicks on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
The matchup that everyone wanted to see in the first round is finally upon us as the Heat and Knicks take the floor for Game 1 to open this season’s playoff series. The Heat took all three regular season meetings against the Knicks this season, however you could make a case that New York were the more impressive team in the second half of the season. Since the coaching change, New York have been a different team to the one that limped through the first half of the season, winning 18 of their last 24 games to secure a playoff berth. While Miami still finished with one of the best records in the leauge, they didn’t look like that same dominate team of a season ago and they struggled away from home, going 18-15 on the road in the regular season.
Considering two of the Heat’s wins against the Knicks this season were by double digits, it’s not hard to see why the line is so high for today’s game. While you could make a strong case for Miami here, New York is playing as well as anyone in the league at the moment, bar the San Antonio Spurs, so they should pose a real threat to the Heat in this series. It would be hard to envision the Knicks stealing this one outright, but I think they keep this one within single digits
Pick
New York Knicks +8.5 Miami Heat
