March Madness
Syracuse Orange vs. South Florida Bulls
February 22, 2012 | 
Author The Syracuse Orange and the South Florida Bulls meet in Big East college hoops action on Wednesday at the Carrier Dome. The Orange is -14.5 point favorites over the Bulls with an over/under point total of 123.
The Syracuse Orange have been one of the best teams in the nation all season long and Jim Boeheim’s team appears headed towards a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. SU is 14-1 in the Big East, 17-0 at home this season, and they can clinch no worse than a tie for first place in the conference with one more win. Kris Joseph is averaging 14 points and 4.8 rebounds, Dion Waiters is averaging 12 points, Brandon Triche is averaging 9.4 points, and C.J. Fair is averaging 9.2 points and 5.5 rebounds. As a team Syracuse is averaging 76.8 points, 16.4 assists, and they are shooting 47.6 percent while defensively they are allowing 60.8 points and their opponents are shooting 38.5 percent. While it isn’t March yet Syracuse looks to be ready for the madness.
The South Florida Bulls look to have built their team specifically for Big East play as Stan Heath’s team didn’t appear to be much before conference play started but they have been a force in conference play. USF is 10-4 in the Big East, 4-7 on the road this season, and tied for fourth place in the conference. Augustus Gilchrist is averaging 10.5 points and 4.8 rebounds, Victor Rudd is averaging 9.1 points and 4.3 rebounds, and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick is averaging 8.2 points and 6.5 rebounds. As a team South Florida is averaging 61.1 points and they are shooting 44.3 percent while defensively they are allowing 58.2 points and they are shooting 39.8 percent. South Florida has been impressive as they are riding a four game winning streak and have won eight of their last 10 but they or 0-4 against teams ranked in the top 25.
Syracuse is 10-3 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, 2-5 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 2-6 against the spread following a win. South Florida is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall, 5-1 against the spread following a cover, and 5-2 against the spread following a win. The home team has covered in four of the last five meetings of these two.
With the way South Florida has been playing this would appear to be a gift getting the boatload of points but it’s just a free play as this is a big step up in competition and the Orange have been relentless at home making this pick a lean at best.
Pick
South Florida Bulls +14.5 Syracuse Orange
Ohio St. Buckeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
The Ohio State Buckeyes look to stay in contention for the Big Ten regular season title as they host the struggling Illinois Fighting Illini on Tuesday. The Buckeyes are -16.5 point favorites over the Fighting Illini with an over/under point total set at 129.
Revenge will be a factor for the Ohio State Buckeyes as Thad Matta’s team looks to redeem themselves from an earlier loss in Champaign but also they are focused in on a season ending match up with Michigan State which could decide a lot when it comes to March madness seeding. OSU is 10-4 in the Big 10, 16-1 at home, and tied for second place in the conference standings with Michigan who they lost to on Saturday. Jared Sullinger is averaging 17.5 points and 9.2 rebounds, William Buford is averaging 15 points, and Deshaun Thomas is averaging 14.6 points. As a team Ohio State is averaging 74.9 points and they are shooting 47.8 percent while defensively they are allowing 57.1 points and their opponents are shooting 40.2 percent. Ohio State looks to be up against the same issue they had a year ago where their starters are as good if not better than anyone’s but they don’t have the depth.
The season has turned into an outright collapse for the Illinois Fighting Illini as Bruce Weber’s team has lost five games in a row and eight of their last nine games to all but knock themselves out of the NCAA Tournament. Illinois is 5-9 in the Big 10, 2-6 on the road this season, and they are tied for ninth place in the conference standings. Brandon Paul is averaging 14.9 points and 4.8 rebounds, Meyers Leonard is averaging 12.9 points and 8.0 rebounds, and D.J. Richardson is averaging 12.1 points. As a team Illinois is averaging 66.2 points and they are shooting 44.7 percent while defensively they are allowing 63.4 points and their opponents are shooting 42.3 percent. Weber has had a nice run at Illinois over his tenure but that tenure could end if the Illini don’t find answers soon.
Ohio State is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games following a game which they didn’t cover, 4-0 against the spread following a loss, and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games. Illinois is 0-4 against the spread following a loss, 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games, and 0-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record. Illinois is 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 visits at Ohio State.
The total is set at 129 and with these two it shouldn’t be much of an issue and my pick will be the over.
Pick
Over 129
Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
The Michigan Wolverines and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet in a Big Ten battle of NCAA Tournament hopefuls. The Wolverines are -5.5 point favorites over the Fighting Illini with an over/under point total of 119.
The Michigan Wolverines have been alternating wins and losses and coming off of a win in their last John Beilein’s team look to make it two in a row here. Michigan is 8-4 in the Big 10, 13-0 at home this season, and they are tied for third place in the conference standings. Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 14.3 points, Trey Burke is averaging 14 points and 4.9 rebounds, and Zack Novack is averaging 9.6 points and 4.6 rebounds. As a team UM is averaging 66.8 points and they are shooting 46 percent while defensively they are allowing 60.4 points and their opponents are shooting 42.4 percent. Michigan is ranked 22nd in the nation and it shouldn’t take many more wins to clinch their spot in March Madness.
The Illinois Fighting Illini looked like the ywere going to be a contender this season but Bruce Weber;s team has lost five of their last six games and will need a strong finish to cement a spot in the NCAA Tournament. UI is 5-6 in the Big 10, 2-4 on the road this season, and they are in a three way tie for sixth place in the conference standings. Brandon Paul is averaging 15 points and 5.0 rebounds, Meyers Leonard is averaging 13.5 points and 7.8 rebounds, and D.J. Richardson is averaging 12.5 points. As a team Illinois is averaging 67 points and they are shooting 45.1 percent and their opponents are averaging 62.2 points and shooting 41.3 percent. Illinois is going to need to show the selection committee they belong as they may find themselves on the bubble.
Michigan is 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 home games, 0-4-1 against the spread following a win, and 19-7 against the spread against the Big Ten. Illinois is 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, 1-5 against the spread in their last six Big Ten games, and 1-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record. Illinois is 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games in Michigan.
The total is simply too low here as this game goes over the total.
Pick
Over 119
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
The St. John’s Red Storm and the Cincinnati Bearcats meet on Wednesday in a Big East college basketball action. The Bearcats are -3.5 point favorites over the Red Storm with an over/under point total set at 132.5.
The St. John’s Red Storm are suffering through a disappointing season as Steve Lavin’s health problems have seemingly deflated their confidence. St. John’s is 4-7 in Big East play, 8-5 at home this season, and in a four way tie for 10th place in the conference. D’Angelo Harrison is averaging 16.7 points, Maurice Harkless is averaging 16.2 points and 8.7 rebounds, and God’sgift Achiuwa is averaging 10.4 points and 6.3 rebounds. As a team St. John’s is averaging 67.7 points and they are shooting 42.9 percent while defensively they are allowing 70 points and their opponents are shooting 42.9 percent. St. John’s is looking at a lost season but with a strong finish they have a chance to make the NIT and with their young core the future looks bright.
The Cincinnati Bearcats ended their three game losing streak last time out with a home win against DePaul and now Mick Cronin’s team looks to make it two in a row. Cincinnati is 6-4 in Big games, 5-3 on the road this season, and in a three way tie for fifth place in the conference standings. Sean Kilpatrick is averaging 15.4 points and 4.8 rebounds, Dion Dixon is averaging 13.7 points, Yancy Gates is averaging 12.6 points and 9.2 rebounds, and Cashmere Wright is averaging 10.7 points and 4.8 assists. As a team Cincinnati is averaging 69.4 points and they are shooting 42.1 percent while defensively they are allowing 60.4 points and their opponents shoot 41.5 percent. Cincinnati plays a style that can knock teams off their game which makes them dangerous in the NCAA Tournament.
St. John’s is 2-5 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, 4-1 against the spread following a double digit home loss, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games. Cincinnati is 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games, 8-3 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, and 8-0 against the spread in their last eight Wednesday games. The underdog has covered four in a row in this series.
Cincinnati is favored on the road here and while laying points on the road isn’t usually a great idea in the Big East, betting St. John’s has been a worse idea.
Pick
Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5 St. John’s Red Storm
Butler Bulldogs vs. UConn Huskies
The NCAA Championship game is finally upon us with a matchup between the Butler Bulldogs and the UConn Huskies. The UConn Huskies are 4-point favorites over Butler with an over/under total set at 129.
The Butler Bulldogs are 28-9 overall and 23 -12 against the spread. They advanced to the championship game by beating 11th seed VCU 70-62 as 3-point favorites. Guard Shelvin Mack scored 24 points for Butler on 8-of-11 from the floor, including 5-of-6 from beyond the arc. Forward Jamie Skeen had 27 points for VCU, showing a very nice inside and outside game. The 132 combined points scored snuck just “over†the 131-point total. Late Butler free throws after intentional fouls were the difference. The “over†is 3-2 for Butler this tournament. Butler has now won 14 straight games and is 7-0 against the spread dating back to the start of the Horizon League tournament. Eighth-seed Butler is trying to match the 1985 Villanova Wildcats as the lowest-seeded school to capture the title. Butler lost 61-59 to Duke in thrilling fashion in last year’s championship game, but easily “covered†the seven-point spread. That game also went “under†the 128-point total. The 1998 Kentucky squad was the last to win the national championship after losing in the title game the year before.
The UConn Huskies are 31-9 overall and 22-12 against the spread. They beat Kentucky to get to the finals 56-55 as 2-point underdogs. The 111 combined points scored went way “under†the 138-point total. The “under†is 4-1 for Connecticut in this tournament, with the defense allowing just 59 points per game. Connecticut All-American point guard Kemba Walker had to work for his 18 points. He was 6-of-15 from the field and 1-of-5 from 3-point range. Connecticut has won 10 straight games starting with winning the Big East Tournament as a No. 9 seed. The only “cover†failure was a 65-63 win over Arizona in the Elite Eight as 3-point favorites. The Huskies are perfect outside of Big East regular season play, going 22-0 overall and 15-1 against the spread.
The team that commits the fewest turnovers will win this championship game. UConn’s guards will need to play as well as they have the past 10 games to beat a feisty Butler team that has surprised us all by reaching the championship game for 2 2nd straight year. I feel UConn will win the title game and cover the 4-point spread due to the fact that Kemba Walkers and his young guard mates are playing especially well. I will lay the 4-points and take the UConn Huskies.
Pick
UConn Huskies -4 Butler Bulldogs
Posted in College Basketball, March Madness, Sportsbook | 
Tags: Butler Bulldogs, College Basketball betting, march madness betting, UCONN Huskies | 
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. UConn Huskies
The Final Four is upon us and the Kentucky Wildcats are 2-point favorites over the UConn Huskies. The over/under total for the game is set at 140. The Connecticut Huskies and Kentucky Wildcats meet for the second time this season. Kentucky lost badly to Connecticut, 84-67 in the November Maui Invitational final. Kemba Walker had 29 points for then-unranked Connecticut and big man Alex Oriakhi added 18 points and 11 rebounds, out-shooting eighth-ranked Kentucky 58-37 percent.
Kentucky is 29-8 overall and 17-15 against the spread. They are looking for its eighth national championship, the first since 1998. Coach John Calipari has never won a national title, losing the 2008 final to Kansas in OT while with Memphis. He also made the Final Four with UMass in 1996. Calipari led Kentucky to the Elite Eight last year and then saw five guys leave as NBA first-round picks including stars John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson. That would have decimated other programs, but Calipari added three dynamic freshmen in Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. However, it’s been the recent play of upperclassmen Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson that’s spurred them to the Final Four. Harrellson had 17 points and Liggins 15 in the 62-60 Sweet Sixteen upset over top-seed Ohio State as 5-point underdogs. Liggins also hit a key three-pointer with 37 seconds left in Kentucky’s 76-69 Elite Eight win over No. 2 seed North Carolina as 1-point favorites. Knight led with 22 points as his streaky play continues, but all five starters were in the double-digits.
The UConn Huskies are 30-9 overall and 21-12 against the spread. They are on a nine-game winning streak that began with winning the Big East Tournament as a ninth seed. Coach Jim Calhoun is looking for his third national title, with the others coming in 1999 and 2004. Kemba Walker is a first team All-American with averages of 23.9 points per game, 5.3 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game. He’s upped his scoring to 26.8 points per game during March Madness. Walker scored just 20 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight. He was 1-of-7 from three-point land and 7-of-17 overall. The Huskies would have likely lost that game earlier this year with Walker’s numbers, but they still won 65-63, although failing to cover the 3-points. Freshman Jeremy Lamb excelled with 19 points against Arizona, including some huge baskets down the stretch. He has a nice mid-range game and he’s really stepped up his play during this tournament.
The big question for Saturday is whether Walker can be contained. I believe that this is his tournament and will come through again on Saturday. I will take the 2-points as I believe UConn will advance to play in the finals on Monday evening. There is no slowing down Kemba Walker now.
Pick
UConn Huskies +2 Kentucky Wildcats
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Butler Bulldogs vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
The Butler Bulldogs are 3-point favorites over the Virginia Commonwealth Rams in the most unexpected Final Four matchup ever.  The over/under total for the game is set at 133. The favorites are all gone. None of the first or second seeds are heading to Houston this weekend for the Final Four. In a tournament rife with upsets, it’s only fitting that the two schools tipping the Final Four are the ones that did the most work to overturn status quo.
The Butler Bulldogs made a remarkable run through the Southeast Region, knocking off the first-, second- and fourth-seeded teams along the way. Underdogs in all four-tournament games, last Saturday’s win in the regional final was Butler’s 13th straight win to punch a return ticket to the Final Four. As extraordinary as the Bulldogs have been, VCU have been one of the greatest stories in tournament history, let alone this year’s event. The team that was never even supposed to get an invite to this year’s dance is now a win away from playing for it all. The Rams, like the Bulldogs, have been underdogs throughout the madness starting with there First Four game verses USC. VCU’s five-game assault on the court and has seen 1-, 3-, 6-, 10- and 11-seeds fall to the wayside. As impressive as their wins of both Georgetown and Purdue were, the Rams saved their best for last Sunday with a 71-61 whipping of Kansas, the final top seed left in the tournament. The final score wasn’t indicative of how convincingly Virginia Commonwealth beat the Jayhawks.
Butler’s four victories in the tournament are by a combined 14 points, a much different route than VCU who has been blowing everyone out. There hasn’t been anything pretty about Butler’s wins in the boxscores. The Bulldogs have shot progressively worse from all areas on the court since escaping with the 71-70 win versus Pittsburgh to advance to the Sweet 16. Florida had fewer turnovers, more steals and blocks, hit its free throws at a higher rate and shot better from the field overall in the Southeast Region Final. Still, Butler won the game in overtime, 74-71. Holding Florida to just one field goal the last six-plus minutes of regulation and working the offensive glass the entire game, especially late, pushed the Bulldogs to Houston.
I am taking the Butler Bulldogs minus the 3-points in the game o Saturday due to the fact that I believe experience will take its toll. Butler, who was in the Final Four last season, will not be overwhelmed by the situation or the game. They were one shot away last year from the National Championship. This experience will once again lead them to a title game on Monday verse either Kentucky or UConn.
Pick
Butler Bulldogs -3 Virginia Commonwealth Rams
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Kentucky Wildcats are 1-point favorites over the North Carolina Tar Heels in this Regional Final game. The over/under total for the game is set at 145. Today’s winner advances to the Final Four to play the UConn Huskies next weekend in Houston, Texas.
The Kentucky Wildcats are 28-8 overall and 17-14 against the spread. Kentucky took out top-seeded Ohio St. on Friday, 62-60. Brandon Knight’s short jumper with five ticks left lifted Kentucky over the Buckeyes who were favored by five-points. Reminiscent of Kentucky’s opener against Princeton when Knight’s only two points came at the end to beat the Tigers, the freshman did not enjoy a great game from the field before hitting the game-winner. Knight had made just two of his previous nine attempts, hitting just 1-of-6 from 3-point range. DeAndre Liggins made the most of his time off the bench with 15 points, six rebounds and three blocks in 34 minutes. Senior Josh Harrellson paced the Wildcats with 17 points. Friday’s win was Kentucky’s ninth straight, a streak that includes victories over Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, West Virginia and now Ohio State.
North Carolina is 29-7 on the season and 17-16 against the spread. On Friday, North Carolina beat up Marquette, 81-63. The game was close for the first nine minutes before North Carolina, a four-point favorite, literally ran away from the Golden Eagles. Marquette held a 10-8 lead with 11:30 to go in the opening half before North Carolina went on a 19-0 run. The Golden Eagles managed to make just six of their 30 first-half field goal attempts, and only 2-of-16 three-pointers all night. Tyler Zeller led the Tar Heels with 27 points while grabbing 12 rebounds.
The two teams played earlier in the year with North Carolina winning at home 75-73 on December 4th. Kentucky was a one-point road favorite in that game. Tyler Zeller was the game’s top scorer with 27 points, hitting 11-of-12 from the charity stripe. Doron Lamb came off the bench to lead Kentucky with 24 points. In today’s game I expect Kentucky to win. Although, the Wildcats are a young-team they are finally beginning to gel as a top team in the country. Despite being a 4-seed, to me they are one of the top couple teams in the country. I will take the Wildcats minus the 1 as I see them playing in Houston next week against UConn.
Pick
Kentucky Wildcats -1 North Carolina Tar Heels
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Kansas Jayhawks vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
The Kansas Jayhawks are 11-point favorites over the Virginia Commonwealth Rams today in San Antonio. The over/under total for today’s game is set at 147 points. Kansas looks to advance to their second Final Four in four years. The winner of the game will face Butler next week at the Final Four.
The Kansas Jayhawks are 35-2 overall and 19-16 against the spread this season. The Jayhawks won the national championship three years ago, with none of the current players a key contributor. That team didn’t face a higher seed than a No. 8 before the Final Four and there’s a similar fate this year. Kansas has wins over No. 16 Boston University, No. 9 Illinois and No. 12 Richmond on Friday 77-56 in the Sweet 16. Richmond was a mismatch from the start thanks to a 27-4 run that led to a 41-22 halftime advantage. The Spiders are one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams, but a 4-of-26 night sealed their fate. Brady Morningstar led the way for Kansas with 18 points. The 134 combined points scored went just “under†the 135-point total. The “under†is 3-0 for Kansas in this tournament. Kansas got the easy “cover†as 10-point favorites and is 2-1 against the spread this tourney. It failed to reach the number against Boston University as big 23 -point favorites.
The Virginia Commonwealth Rams are 27-11 overall and 17-20 against the spread. The Rams received a surprising at-large bid out of the Colonial Athletic Association and are the lowest remaining seed. This is their first trip to the Elite Eight. VCU has won all four March Madness games as underdogs, starting with a play-in win over Pac-10 USC on March 16th. It then took down three more major conference schools in Georgetown, Purdue and Florida St. Senior guard Brad Burgess scored 26 points in Friday’s win over Florida St. Fatigue could be a factor for VCU having just gone into overtime and having played the extra game. Facing a team that’s as deep as Kansas only adds to the problem.
Kansas has been the best team so far in this year’s tournament. I don’t expect this game to be close at all. Kansas has way too much size and depth for Virginia Commonwealth. I will lay the 11-points and take the Kansas Jayhawks.
Pick
Kansas Jayhawks -11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams
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Florida Gators vs. Butler Bulldogs
The Florida Gators are 3-point favorites over the Butler Bulldogs for the right to play in the NCAA Final Four. The over/under total for the game is set at 131. The game is being played on a neutral court in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Butler, a mid-major power from the Horizon League, has won at least 20 games for six consecutive seasons. The Bulldogs nearly upset Duke in last year’s NCAA Tournament championship game, losing 61-59 as seven-point underdogs. The 26-9 Bulldogs were underdogs in all three of their NCAA Tournament games this season. They probably shouldn’t have been an underdog to #4 seed Wisconsin. That was proven this past Thursday when Butler beat the Badgers, 61-54, as 4-point underdogs. The combined 115 points dipped “under†the 123-point total. Butler reached that game by getting past Old Dominion, 60-58, as one-point underdogs in the first round. The combined 118 points went “under†the 123-point total. The Bulldogs took out Pittsburgh, the top seed in the Southeast Regional, 71-70 as eight-point underdogs in the second round. The combined 141 points went “over†the 125-point total. Few anticipated the Bulldogs being this close to another Final Four appearance after losing Gordon Hayward to the NBA’s Utah Jazz. But the Bulldogs still have star power with forward Matt Howard and guard Shelvin Mack. Mack is averaging 19.3 points per game in the tournament while Howard is averaging 17 points a game.
Florida, 29-7, last reached a regional final in 2007 when it won the tournament for the second consecutive year. The Gators have tremendous depth inside with Southeastern Conference Player of the Year Chandler Parsons, Vernon Macklin, Alex Tyus, Patric Young and Erick Murphy. They also have an excellent backcourt in Kenny Boynton, who had 17 points and five assists versus BYU, and playmaker Ervin Walker. Florida coach Billy Donovan has a veteran team with all five starters back from last year. The Gators have posted 13 consecutive seasons of at least 20 victories. The Gators are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
In today’s game I see Florida winning the game quite handily. Butler has had a great run in the tournament once again but Florida’s depth will wear down Butler. I look for Florida to win and cover the 3-point margin nd move on to the Final Four being played in Houston, TX.
Pick
Florida Gators -3 Butler Bulldogs
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