College Football
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
January 9, 2012 | 
Author The Louisiana State Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet Monday at the Superdome to decide the National Championship. The Tigers are -1.5 point favorites over the Crimson Tide.
Unbeaten LSU has been the class of college football this season, outscoring opponents 491-131 behind an effective, high scoring offense and a suffocating defense. At first glance, the LSU defense doesn’t appear to be anything out of the ordinary with the #73 unit that averaged 375 yards but a huge 38.5 points behind a bruising ground game that produced 216 yards (#17) per contest. Quarterbacks Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson split time under center with Jefferson suspended for four games at the beginning of the season for his part in a fight. Both were productive through the air with Lee completing 104 of 167 throws for 1,306 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions while Jefferson (50-80/684) was just as effective albeit fewer opportunities with six scoring tosses against one pick. Reuben Randle was the receiver with 50 receptions for 904 yards and eight TD’s with O’Dell Beckham catching 36 balls for 437 yards and two scores. Russell Shephard (14-190) and Deangelo Peterson (17-172) rounded out the top pass catchers in an effective but very limited air game. It was on the ground where the Tigers were feared he most with Michael Ford plowing his way to 755 yards on 123 carries with seven touchdowns with Spencer Ware getting most of the work with 174 totes that went for 700 yards with eight trips to the end zone. Alfred Blue (78-539), Kenny Hilliard (57-320) and Jefferson (61-248) rounded out the top runners. The LSU defense had more than their share of notoriety with the second ranked unit in the land that gave up 252 yards and 10.5 points. It was pick your poison with this group who were #3 versus the run and sixth against the pass.
Alabama gets a second chance at knocking off LSU after squandering a 6-3 fourth quarter lead to lose in overtime. The Crimson Tide edged out Oklahoma State to reach the National Championship behind a high scoring offense of their own combined with the nation’s best defense. Alabama totaled 433 Yards (#31) and 36 points with a powerful rushing attack that averaged 220 yards (#14) leading the way. Quarterback AJ McCarron didn’t throw all that much but was a threat each time he did. McCarron completed 196 of 294 passes for 2,400 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. Marquis Maze led the receiving corps with 56 catches for 627 yards and a score followed by Trent Richardson with 27 catches out of the backfield for 327 yards and three TD’s. Brad Smelley (27-317), Darius Hanks (21-270) and Kenny Bell (16-229)all had productive seasons in limited opportunities. However, just like their opponent, it was on the ground where Alabama thrived with Richardson rumbling to 1,583 yards on 263 carries with 20 touchdowns. Eddie Lacy spelled Richardson effectively with 631 yards on 84 touches with seven scores and 7 ½ yard average. Jalston Fowler (56-385) was option number three with nearly seven yards per touch and four trips to the end zone. The Crimson Tide defense was the best at everything with the top rank in total yards (191), passing yards 116 and rushing yards (75) which to nobodies surprise led to the best scoring D in the game at less than nine points.
I thought that Alabama had a few plays go against them in the first meeting and cost them a win. With that said, it also seemed that the Tigers just seemed to make big plays. It’s tough going against either team and I’m not a Les Miles fan but they are undefeated for a reason. Take the Tigers minus the 1.5
Pick
LSU Tigers -1.5 Alabama Crimson Tide
Posted in College Football, Sportsbook | 
Tags: Alabama Crimson Tide, College football betting, LSU Tigers | 
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Northern Illinois Huskies match up in the GoDaddy.com Bowls Sunday. The Red Wolves are -1 point favorites over the Huskies with an over/under point total set at 62.
Arkansas State is riding a nine game winning streak and were unbeaten in the Sun Belt on the way to the program’s first ten win season. The success cost them head coach Hugh Freeze who took the top spot at Mississippi leaving David Gunn to run the show Sunday. The Red Wolves had no trouble moving the ball with the #23 offense that averaged 454 yards and over 33 points with 288 yards coming from the nation’s #18 passing attack. Quarterback Ryan Alpin led the passing game, completing 274 of 418 throws for 3,235 yards with 18 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Dwayne Frampton was the star of the receiving corps with 90 catches for 1,125 yards and six touchdowns with Josh Jarboe proving to be a reliable second option with 707 yards on 52 catches. Taylor Stockemer (37-571) rounded out the top producers with four others combining for 600 yards. Aplin used his legs to lead the Red Wolves in rushing with 151 carries turning in to 605 yards and nine scores with Derek Lawson rumbling for 459 yards on 111 totes. Frankie Jackson gave ASU another 343 yards on 85 tries with all three averaging four yards per touch. Arkansas State also featured the #21 ranked defense that gave up 326 yards and 19 points with the #14 rush D that gave up 107 yards per contest.
Northern Illinois has won eight in a row to help capture their first MAC Championship in 28 years and their fourth consecutive Bowl appearance. The Huskies success stems from their ability to move the chains and stick the ball in the end zone. NIU was #10 with 482 yards and 38 points with a top ten running game that averaged 248 yards. That doesn’t mean Northern Illinois couldn’t put the ball in the air because Chandler Harnish was spectacular, completing 219 of 348 for 2,942 yards with 26 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Nathan Palmer and Martel Moore were interchangeable in the receiving department, combining for 86 catches for 1,211 yards and 13 touchdowns with Perez Ashford (39-450) and Da’Ron Brown (23-317) giving Harnish four quality targets. However, Harnish is best known for tucking the ball and running with 1,385 yards on 185 carries for 7.5 yard average and eleven touchdowns. Jasmin Hopkins was right on his heels with 939 yards on 179 tries with 13 trips to the end zone. Akeem Daniels (53-284) and Jordan Lynch (38-250) didn’t get much work but were effective whenever they touched the ball. The problem for the Huskies was on defense as this unit didn’t stop anybody, allowing 418 yards and 31 points to rank #89.
Both teams moved the ball and found the end zone with regularity but only the Red Wolves had any defensive bite. The problem for the Red Wolves is they have not faced a talent like Harnish who will be the best player on the field but I’m backing defense here.
Pick
Arkansas St. Red Wolves -1 Northern Illinois Huskies
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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. SMU Mustangs
The Pittsburgh Panthers and the Southern Methodist Mustangs match up in the BBVA Compass Bowl Saturday. The Panthers are -3 point favorites over the Mustangs with an over/under point total set at 47.
Pittsburgh enters it’s fourth consecutive Bowl by virtue of their season ending victory over Syracuse. In a strange turn of events head coach Todd Graham abruptly resigned to take over at Arizona State leaving defensive coordinator Keith Patterson to run the team Saturday. The Panthers were counting on a big offensive year under Graham but this unit proved to be little more than average 362 yards (#74) and 26 points with middle of the row rushing and passing attacks. Quarterback Tino Sunseri was under fire at times for some inconsistent play but he completed 228 of 357 throws for 2,433 yards with ten touchdowns and ten interceptions. Devin Street was the top option of the receiving corps with 48 catches for 692 yards with two scores while Mike Shanahan hauling in 35 balls for 443 yards and four touchdowns. Hubie Graham (27-307), Cameron Saddler (19-207) and Ray Graham (30-200) rounded out the top producers with three others accounting for 400 yards. The rushing attack was a shadow of it’s former self with Ray Graham (164-964) doing most of the work but he was lost for the year with a knee injury in week nine. Zach Brown is option number two with 336 yards on 82 carries with five scores with Isaac Bennett logging 215 yards on 48 totes and both will be expected to pick up the slack Saturday. The Panthers defense was #40 in the nation, allowing 355 yards and 22 points behind a rush D that gave up 122 yards (#23).
Interestingly, Southern Methodist head coach June Jones appeared to be in line for the Arizona State job but the big concern is getting a Mustangs squad prepared for a Bowl game after dropping four of six to end the season. SMU doesn’t standout offensively at 396 yards and over 25 points with a better than average passing game that posted 278 yards (#23). The passing game looked to belong to Kyle Padron but JJ McDermott took over in the first game of the season and had an above average year yardage wise. McDermott completed 256 of 430 passes for 3,182 yards with 16 touchdown but 16 interceptions which is much too high. Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley were nearly mirror images in the pass catching business. They combined for 151 receptions for 1,952 yards with nine touchdowns. Terrance Wilkerson (43-545) and Der’rikk Thompson (29-394) were quality targets with three others posting nearly 400 yards. The Southern Methodist rushing attack was never the focus of the offense but it was productive when used. However, the ground game was Zach Line with 208 carries for 1,224 yards and 17 trips to the end zone. Rishad Wimsley (34-163) and Jared Williams (31-140) will likely get the ball with Line out. The Mustangs gave up 351 yards (#36) and over 24 points and were #29 against the run, giving up 127 yards.
Without Graham Pittsburgh might go to the air more which might not be a great scenario with Sunseri making too many decision. McDermott has loads of talent but he is no stranger to making mistakes with 16 interceptions. Both defenses are strong against the run which might favor SMU if they can force Pitt solely to the air.
Pick
Pittsburgh Panthers -3 SMU Mustangs
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Kansas St. Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
The Kansas State Wildcats face the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium Friday. The Razorbacks are -8 point favorites over the Wildcats with an over/under point total set at 62.5.
Bill Snyder and Kansas State look for a program tying eleventh victory and a rebound from a 36-34 defeat to Syracuse in the 2010 Pinstripe Bowl. With only 343 total yards, the Wildcats offense was #96 but got quite a bit of mileage with 33 points per game led by the rush which produced 194 yards (#27). It wasn’t that quarterback Colin Klein was a complete disaster through the air because he was a viable passer, completing 145 of 251 throws for 1,745 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Klein’s favorite target was Chris Harper with 39 catches for 536 yards and five touchdowns with Tramaine Thompson and Tyler Lockett each had 18 receptions for a combined 527 yards and four TD’s. John Hubert (23-193), Andre McDonald (8-133) and Sheldon Smith (17-127) round out the top receivers. If Klein had any shortcomings in the air attack, he made up for them with his legs in the ground game by leading the team with 1,099 yards on 293 carries with 26 touchdowns although his 3.8 yard average was hardly impressive. John Hubert rambled for another 933 yards on 188 totes with three trips to the end zone with the remainder of the team accounting for 350 yards. The K-State defense gave up 399 yards (#74) and nearly 28 points but were #39 versus the rush, allowing 132 yards per contest.
The high powered Razorbacks had the misfortune of facing both Arkansas and Alabama and those were the only two games where the offense scored less than 29 points and their only defeats of the season. The Arkansas offense piled up the real estate to the tune of 446 yards to rank #25 in the country. This unit averaged 37 points and was led by the 13th ranked passing attack that averaged 308 yards per contest. Quarterback Tyler Wilson had a productive and mistake free year under center by completing 257 of 407 passes for 3.422 yards with 22 touchdowns against just six interceptions. Jarius Wright was the receiver of choice with 63 catches for 1,029 yards and eleven touchdowns while Joe Adams caught 49 balls for 630 yards three scores. Cobi Hamilton and Chris Gragg combined for 71 receptions and 1,008 yards with five TD’s to give Wilson four top notch options. Arkansas didn’t run the ball often but they were effective in limited tries. Dennis Johnson was the best runner with 637 yards on 101 carries with three scores while Ronnie Wingo adding 440 yards on 95 totes with another three TD’s with eight others combing for 600 yards. The Razorbacks defense didn’t get a lot of notoriety but allowed 371 yards and only 23 points with the #26 passing D that gave up 197 yards.
Interesting match up that might favor Arkansas and their passing going against a suspect secondary but Kansas State faced a ton of pass happy Big 12 squads. The Razorbacks D could be run on which would favor the Wildcats run first offense so neither team should have a whole lot of issues moving the chains. I think the safest bet is the points in what might be high scoring.
Pick
Kansas St. Wildcats +8 Arkansas Razorbacks
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Houston Cougars vs. Penn St. Nittany Lions
The Houston Cougars look to win for all of the small conference guys as they take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the TicketCity Bowl. The Cougars are -7 point favorites over the Nittany Lions with an over/under point total set at 56.5.
It’s tough to think of a program anywhere in history that has gone through more turmoil off of the field than the Penn State Nittany Lions did this season. Once seen as the standard in excellence and how a college football program should be run, it is now seen as a black eye on the world of college sports and beyond. With Joe Paterno no longer coaching concerns have to be around preparation but looking at how PSU finished the year it shouldn’t be an issue. Matt McGLoin has just eight touchdown passes and while the hope is to not make mistakes he has turned it over five times. Silas Redd is a capable back and he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry and has scored seven touchdowns. Derek Moye has 40 catches, Justin Brown has 34 catches, and Devon Smith has 23 but the passing numbers just aren’t there. While the offense scores just 19.8 points per game and gains 344.8 yards, defensively Penn State has been rock solid allowing just over 300 yards and 15.7 points holding opponents to just 162.2 yards passing. Gerald Hodges has 97 tackles, Drew Astorino has 77 tackles, and Glen Carson has 74 tackles. Penn State as always is sound in the fundamentals and that is what keeps them in ball games.
The Houston Cougars were simply a scoring machine and it’s tough to argue with what they did offensively regardless of it had more to do with personnel or the system, either way they got it done. Of course we can’t talk Houston offense without first going to Case Keenum and his 5,099 yards passing and his 45 touchdowns and just five interceptions. While Houston QB’s have struggled at the next level (See: Andre Ware and David Kligler), we will find out soon enough if Keenum has what it takes in an NFL system. Almost all of Houston’s running backs average over five years per carry and Charles Sims had over 780 yards on the ground and over 540 in the air scoring 13 touchdowns while Michael Hayes had 707 yards rushing with 11 touchdowns and four touchdown catches. Tyron Carrier had 87 catches while Patrick Edwards had 79 catches but 1,524 yards and 18 touchdowns and Justin Johnson had 75 catches, 1,081 yards, and 11 touchdowns. While Houston gained nearly 600 yards per game and scored over 50 points they allow 2.1 points and 386 yards with 171.8 of those yards coming on the ground. The Houston defense doesn’t get much credit but they had 18 interceptions and Marcus McGraw had 131 tackles, Derrick Mathews has 97 tackles, and Sammy Brown had 89 tackles and 12.5 sacks. This is a big game for Houston, Keenum, and all of the smaller conference schools looking to make a statement.
Penn State is 3-10-1 against the spread in their last 14 games overall, 0-5 against the spread in their last five non-conference games, and 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog. Houston is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite, 2-5 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven non-conference games.
The total in this is set at 56.5 and I don’t see that being an issue here as both teams are in attack mode.
Pick
Over 56.5
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Florida Gators vs. Ohio St. Buckeyes
Two teams accustomed to bigger things meet in the Taxslayer.com Bowl as Florida Gators meet the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Gators are -1 point favorites over the Buckeyes with an over/under point total set at 43.
Both the Florida Gators and the Ohio State Buckeyes are far more accustomed to playing in BCS Bowl games and for National Championships but this one is to see who finishes above .500 and who finishes below .500 on the year. While both of these teams have had several Heisman Trophy winners, including several recently, neither of these teams did enough offensively consistently to win in the SEC or the Big Ten.
Looking purely at the team numbers they are very close with Florida averaging 25.6 points and gaining 334.1 yards while OSU averages 25.1 points and 319.5 yards. Gator QB John Brantley never looked at home in the UF system as it’s based on the running game and short passing game to speedy backs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps who are as fast as any players in the country. Ironically Ohio State’s offense didn’t appear to be a great fit for QB Braxton Miller’s skills as he has plenty of speed to get outside and roll out but he was called upon to drop back and he and running back Dan Herron looked to be asked to primarily run between the tackles.
The Florida passing game was non-existent and while they had years of recruiting top receivers with sprinter speed, it all went to waste as Deonte Thompson and Frankie Hammond Jr just don’t have any kind of numbers. For Ohio State DeVier Posey missed most of the year and a lot of the action went to possession receiver Jake Stoneburner.
Defensively once again it’s splitting hairs to separate these two as Florida allows 20.6 points and 299.6 yards while Ohio State allows 20.8 points and 328.6 yards per game. The Florida defense entered the year inexperienced and they gained it along the way with Jon Bostic being a virtual tackling machine. The Buckeyes defense spent a lot of time on the field and while Andrew Sweat wasn’t in the Buckeyes loss to Michigan and missed most of the loss at Purdue, he’ll be playing in this one.
This is an odd one as both of these teams are loaded with speed and talented athletes and are such historically strong programs but we just haven’t seen much from either of them all season. The numbers suggest these teams are very similar and I see this one as a low scoring game that stays under the total.
Pick
Under 43
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. BYU Cougars
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the BYU Cougars kick off a full day of college football as they meet in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. The Golden Hurricane is -1 point favorites over the Cougars with an over/under point total set at 55.5.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane lost four games this season and to their credit all came to teams that were ranked in the top ten when they played them. Bill Blankenship’s team lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston and no matter what conference you play in there isn’t any shame in losing to those teams. G.J. Kinne completed 64.1 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ja’Teriam Douglas is averaging 8.2 yards per carry for 894 yards and four touchdowns and Try Watts averaged 5.7 yards per carry for 843 yards and four touchdowns. Willie Carter has 61 catches and seven touchdowns, Bryan Burnham has 50 catches and eight touchdowns, and Clay Sears has 35 catches and six touchdowns. Defensively Tulsa has 16 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, and 24 sacks while allowing 27.6 points and 420.7 yards per game. Curnelius Arnick has 142 tackles, Shawn Jackson has 92 tackles, and Tyrunn Walker has eight sacks. Tulsa has been unable to step it up against the better teams as their losses have been lopsided but they have been a solid team overall once again this year.
The BYU Cougars have completed their first regular season as an Independent and Bronco Mendenhall’s team has won three in a row and eight of their last nine games. The Cougars had a wakeup call when they were stomped by Utah in the Holy War but looking back the 54-10 loss did much more good than bad for this team. Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps both saw action at QB this year with Nelson completing 61.1 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions and Jake Heaps completing 57.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. JJ Di Luigi had 546 yards rushing and three touchdowns and Michael Alisa had 455 yards and three scores. Cody Hoffman had 53 catches and seven touchdowns, Ross Apo has 34 catches and nine touchdowns, and JD Falslev has 29 catches. Defensively BYU has 13 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, and 21 sacks and they allow 20.3 points and 316.3 yards per game. Brandon Ogletree has 67 tackles, Kyle Van Noy has 58 tackles and five sacks, and Daniel Sorenson and Uona Kaveinga each have 52 tackles. BYU will try and use their big and physical players to move the ball over the smaller Tulsa team.
Tulsa is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 4-1 against the spread in their last five bowl games, and 5-2 against the spread against a team with a winning record. BYU is 6-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 5-0 against the spread in their last five non-conference games, and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as a favorite.
The total in this one started out at 58 and has been dropping from there but personally I don’t see it as BYU scored in the 40’s their last three games and Tulsa regularly scored 38 or more this season
Pick
Over 55.5
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. BYU Cougars
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the BYU Cougars kick off a full day of college football as they meet in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. The Golden Hurricane is -1 point favorites over the Cougars with an over/under point total set at 55.5.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane lost four games this season and to their credit all came to teams that were ranked in the top ten when they played them. Bill Blankenship’s team lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston and no matter what conference you play in there isn’t any shame in losing to those teams. G.J. Kinne completed 64.1 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ja’Teriam Douglas is averaging 8.2 yards per carry for 894 yards and four touchdowns and Try Watts averaged 5.7 yards per carry for 843 yards and four touchdowns. Willie Carter has 61 catches and seven touchdowns, Bryan Burnham has 50 catches and eight touchdowns, and Clay Sears has 35 catches and six touchdowns. Defensively Tulsa has 16 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, and 24 sacks while allowing 27.6 points and 420.7 yards per game. Curnelius Arnick has 142 tackles, Shawn Jackson has 92 tackles, and Tyrunn Walker has eight sacks. Tulsa has been unable to step it up against the better teams as their losses have been lopsided but they have been a solid team overall once again this year.
The BYU Cougars have completed their first regular season as an Independent and Bronco Mendenhall’s team has won three in a row and eight of their last nine games. The Cougars had a wakeup call when they were stomped by Utah in the Holy War but looking back the 54-10 loss did much more good than bad for this team. Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps both saw action at QB this year with Nelson completing 61.1 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions and Jake Heaps completing 57.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. JJ Di Luigi had 546 yards rushing and three touchdowns and Michael Alisa had 455 yards and three scores. Cody Hoffman had 53 catches and seven touchdowns, Ross Apo has 34 catches and nine touchdowns, and JD Falslev has 29 catches. Defensively BYU has 13 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, and 21 sacks and they allow 20.3 points and 316.3 yards per game. Brandon Ogletree has 67 tackles, Kyle Van Noy has 58 tackles and five sacks, and Daniel Sorenson and Uona Kaveinga each have 52 tackles. BYU will try and use their big and physical players to move the ball over the smaller Tulsa team.
Tulsa is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 4-1 against the spread in their last five bowl games, and 5-2 against the spread against a team with a winning record. BYU is 6-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 5-0 against the spread in their last five non-conference games, and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as a favorite.
The total in this one started out at 58 and has been dropping from there but personally I don’t see it as BYU scored in the 40’s their last three games and Tulsa regularly scored 38 or more this season
Pick
Over 55.5
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa St. Cyclones
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Iowa State Cyclones battle it out in “The House That Ruth Built” as they meet in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium. The Scarlet Knights are -2 point favorites over the Cyclones with an over/under point total set at 44.5.
It was a season of streaks for Greg Schiano’s Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they strung together wins and losses all season long. While RU didn’t make a lot of headlines they quietly went about their business finishing the season with eight wins including winning three in row as they were closing out the season until they took a tough loss to UConn. Chas Dood and Gary Nova both saw plenty of action at QB this season and as of the time of writing this Schiano hadn’t named a starter but as is usually the case in QB controversies a lot of it has to do with neither of them standing out with each having just two more touchdowns than interceptions. Jawan Jamison averages just 3.8 yards per carry with seven touchdowns and Jeremy Deering averages 3.6 yards but carried the ball just 47 times. Mohamed Sanu is Rutgers’ best player with 109 catches for 1,144 yards and seven touchdowns, Quron Pratt has 31 catches, and Joe Martinek has 27 catches. Defensively Rutgers has 17 interceptions, 14 fumble recoveries, and 33 sacks while they allow 18.8 points and 314.4 yards per game. Khaseem Greene has 127 tackles and three sacks, Steve Beauharnais has 71 tackles and five sacks, and Duron Harmon has five interceptions. Rutgers had 18 players in all that got to an opposing QB this season.
The Iowa State Cyclones had their share of games against bowl teams this season but unfortunately for them in all but the one win against Oklahoma State Paul Rhoads team ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Cyclones won just four of their last 10 games including back to back losses to close out the year. Jared Barnett took over at QB for Steele Jantz and he completed just 50.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and six interceptions. James White looked good carrying the ball as he averaged 4.7 yards per carry for 701 yards and eight touchdowns. Darius Reynolds had 41 catches and seven touchdowns, Josh Lenz had 35 catches, and Aaron Horne had 33 catches. Defensively Iowa State had 11 interceptions, 13 fumble recoveries, and 24 sacks while they allow 29.6 points and 432.3 yards in the high octane Big 12. Jake Knott had 107 tackles, A.J. Klein had 101 tackles, and Jacques Washington had 83 tackles. While Iowa State did get the signature win against Oklahoma State they didn’t really have any other wins of any significance.
Rutgers is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five bowl games, 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven neutral site games, and 1-4-1 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover. Iowa State is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 5-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 1-4 against the spread as an underdog of up to three points.
The total is set at 44.5 and for a bowl game and really any game in general that is a low number but it fits here as this one will be more about the defenses and for my pick I will take the under.
Pick
Under 44.5
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Mississippi St. Bulldogs vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet in Nashville as they face off in the Music City Bowl. The Bulldogs are -6.5 point favorites over the Demon Deacons with an over/under point total set at 47.5.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons lost four of their last five games as they hit their post season but Jim Grobe’s team looks to put that all in the past for four quarters of football in Nashville. Wake Forest has defeated two bowl teams this year along with a three point loss to Clemson and a seven point loss to Notre Dame. Tanner Price has put up decent numbers this season completing 60.9 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Brandon Pendergrass is averaging 4.6 yards per carry with eight touchdowns and 750 total yards. Chris Givens has 74 catches for 1,276 yards and nine touchdowns and Michael Campanaro has 63 catches as part of a Wake offense which has been able to put up points and yards. Defensively Wake Forest has 11 interceptions, six fumble recoveries, and 10 sacks while they allow 27.8 points and 399.1 yards per game. Cyhl Quarles has 96 tackles, Kyle Wilber has 65 tackles and 3.5 sacks, and Josh Bush has six interceptions. At times Wake looked to be their own worst enemy and they will have a tough enough time with their opponent here that they can’t afford to beat themselves.
The expectations for the Mississippi State Bulldogs were sky high heading into the year coming off of their New Year’s Day beat down of Michigan but the Bulldogs had bounces go against them and they simply didn’t live up to expectations needing to win their final game of the season to become bowl eligible. Dan Mullen was seen as an offensive genius in his days at Florida but the Mississippi State offense sputtered for most of this season. Tyler Russell supplanted Chris Relf as the starting QB after Relf had been touted a candidate for post season awards but Russell completed just 53.5 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Vick Ballard is an NFL quality running back averaging 5.6 yards per carry running against SEC defenses while scoring eight touchdowns and also catching 18 passes. Chris Smith has 30 catches, Arceto Clark has 28 catches, and Chad Bumphis has 24 catches but the passing game just wasn’t very effective overall. Defensively MSU had 12 interceptions, eight fumble recoveries, and 21 sacks and they allowed 19.9 points and 355.9 yards per game. Cam Lawrence has 114 tackles, and Charles Mitchell and Brandon Wilson each have 92 tackles. Mississippi State beat just one bowl team all season beating Louisiana Tech in overtime back in September.
Wake Forest is 4-1 against the spread in their last five bowl games, 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog, and 5-1 against the spread following a loss. Mississippi State is 4-0 against the spread in their last four Bowl games, 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite.
The total in this one is up to 47.5 but I still see some room for the over to come in though it may be getting to the higher end of the range but for my pick the over is the play.
Pick
Over 48
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