College Basketball
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
March 23, 2012 | 
Author The Kentucky Wildcats and the Indiana Hoosiers meet in the Sweet 16 for a rematch of their thriller earlier this year with a spot in the Elite Eight going to the winner. The Wildcats are -9 point favorites over the Hoosiers with an over/under point total set at 144.5.
The Kentucky Wildcats have been the number one team in the nation for most of the season and they are the number one overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and thus far John Calipari’s team has shown nothing that would make anyone believe they are undeserving of those distinctions. UK knocked off Western Kentucky in round and then made it look easy against Iowa State in the second round. Against the Cyclones Marquis Teague had 24 points and seven assists, Darius Miller had 19 points and six rebounds, Dorn Lamb had 16 points, and Anthony Davis had 15 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists. As a team the Wildcats shot 55.4 percent from the floor, 50 percent from beyond the three point arc, and 68.2 percent from the free throw line. Over the course of the year Kentucky is 8-1 in neutral site games, 8-2 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the 38th ranked schedule in the nation. Despite their loss earlier this season to the Hoosiers the road to the NCAA Championship goes through Kentucky this year.
While it has been clear all season that Indiana is a team on the rebound and are on their way to regaining national prominence but now Tom Crean’s team is just two games away from the Final Four. Indiana had no problem with New Mexico State in their opening round game and then gritted it out against a tough VCU team in round two. Against VCU Cody Zeller had 16 points and 13 rebounds, Christian Watford had 16 points and five rebounds, and Victor Oladipo had nine points and six assists. As a team the Hoosiers shot 52.2 percent from the floor, 46.2 percent from beyond the three point arc, and they hit 81.8 percent of their free throws. Over the course of the year Indiana is 4-1 in neutral site games, 4-5 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the 26th ranked schedule in the nation. Indiana has something going for them that no other team left in the tournament does and that is that they have already beaten Kentucky once this year but that isn’t going to make beating them twice any easier.
Kentucky is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Big Ten, 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall, and 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Indiana is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine non-conference games, 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games following a game which they didn’t cover, and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog of seven to 12.5 points. The favorite has covered in 11 of the last 13 meetings of these two.
The total is at 144.5 for this one and is going higher but I have this staying under that number. The first meeting went to 145 but both of these teams can play defense and will in this spot.
Pick
Under 144.5
Baylor Bears vs. Xavier Musketeers
The Baylor Bears and the Xavier Musketeers battle it out on Friday in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 with the winner nailing down a spot in the Elite Eight. The Bears are -6 point favorites over the Musketeers with an over/under point total set at 140.
Six teams from the Big 12 made the NCAA Tournament this season but only two have made it to the second weekend and Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears are one of them. Baylor knocked off South Dakota State in round one and then followed it up with a convincing 17 point win over Colorado. Against CU Brady Heslip had 27 points going 9 of 13 from three point land, Pierre Jackson had 15 points and 10 assists, Quincy Acy had seven points and 10 rebounds, and Perry Jones III had seven points. As a team the Bears shot 43.8 percent from the floor, 55 percent from beyond the three point arc, and 72.2 percent from the free throw line. For the year Baylor is 7-1 in neutral site games, 3-5 against ranked teams, and they played the 16th ranked schedule in the nation. Baylor has looked like one of the top teams in the nation for the bulk of the season but they have had a few flat performances where they have been vulnerable as well.
The Xavier Musketeers have had their share of ups and downs this season and right now Chris Mack’s team are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Xavier came back to defeat Notre Dame in their opening round game and then defeated the upset minded Cinderella Lehigh in their second round match up. Against Lehigh Kenny Frease had 25 points and 12 rebounds, Tu Holloway had 21 points, and Mark Lyons had seven points in an all-around team effort. As a team the Musketeers shot 44.4 percent from the floor, 46.7 percent from beyond the three point arc, and 71.4 percent from the free throw line. For the year Xavier is 5-3 in neutral site games, 1-0 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the 41st ranked schedule in the country. Xavier seems to right in the thick of it every year at NCAA Tournament time and this season is no different.
Baylor is 4-1 against the spread in their last five neutral site games, 6-2 against the spread in their last eight non-conference games, and 3-9 against the spread following a win. Xavier is 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight games against the Big 12, 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 neutral site games, and 16-4-2 against the spread in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games.
The total is set in the 139.5 to 140 range and I see it coming in under that number as while both teams offense is good enough to score but their defense should keep it lower scoring.
Pick
Under 140
Syracuse Orange vs. Wisconsin Badgers
The Syracuse Orange and the Wisconsin Badgers battle it out on Thursday with a spot in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament going to the winner. The Orange are -3.5 point favorites over the Badgers with an over/under point total set at 121.5.
The Syracuse Orange won the Big East going away this season but when Fab Melo was declared ineligible for March Madness many jumped off of Jim Boeheim’s teams’ bandwagon. Syracuse struggled a little in their first round game against UNC-Ashville winning by seven but after a competitive first half with Kansas State the Orange dominated the second half and won by 16 to earn this spot. Syracuse is 5-1 in games played on a neutral court, 5-0 against teams ranked in the top 25, and over the course of the season they played the 29th ranked schedule in the nation. Against Kansas State Dion Waiters had 18 points, Scoop Jardine had 16 points, five rebounds, and eight assists, James Southerland had 15 points and six rebounds, and Kris Joseph had 11 points. As a team SU shot 51.1 percent from the floor, they hit 66.7 percent of their shots from beyond the three point arc, and 79.3 percent from the free throw line. While the loss of Melo obviously hurts Syracuse has showed no signs of vulnerability yet.
The Wisconsin Badgers are one of four Big Ten teams to make the Sweet 16 and Bo Ryan’s team looks to take it another step closer to the Final Four. Wisconsin dominated Montana in the first round of the tournament winning by 24 and then won a nail biter against Vandy by three in one of the better games of the Tournament thus far. Wisconsin is 5-1 in neutral site games, 5-7 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the 14th ranked schedule in the nation. Against Vanderbilt Jordan Taylor had 14 points, Jared Berggren had 12 points and six rebounds, Ryan Evans had 11 points five rebounds, and four assists, and Ben Brust had 11 points. As a team the Badgers shot 41.8 percent, 30.3 percent from beyond the three point line, and they got to the line just eight times making four of the shots. For Wisconsin it is all about tempo and pace and if they can get teams into their game they can beat anyone.
Syracuse is 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 non-conference games, 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games overall, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five neutral site games. Wisconsin is 5-1 against the spread in their last six neutral site games, 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall, and 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 non-conference games.
This one should be a war but with the total moving up to 121.5 after opening at 119 I still like the over.
Pick
Over 121.5
Posted in College Basketball, March Madness, Sportsbook | 
Tags: Baseball betting, College Basketball betting, Syracuse Orange, Wisconsin Badgers | 
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Ohio St. Buckeyes vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Ohio State Buckeyes and the Cincinnati Bearcats face off on Thursday Night in Boston with a spot in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament going to the winner. The Buckeyes are -8.5 point favorites over the Bearcats with an over/under point total set at 130.5.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have been in the top 10 in the rankings for the bulk of the season but Thad Matta’s team knows that doesn’t mean much if they don’t go deeper into the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State breezed through their opening round game against Loyola-Maryland and then fought off a tough Gonzaga team in the second round. Against the Zags Deshaun Thomas 18 points and seven rebounds, Jared Sullinger had 18 points, Aaron Craft had 17 points and 10 assists, and William Buford had 13 points. As a team Ohio State shot 47.2 percent from the floor, 37.5 percent from beyond the three point arc, and they made 77.8 percent of their free throws. Over the course of the season Ohio State is 5-1 in neutral site games, 7-6 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they have played they eighth ranked schedule in the nation. Wins and numbers are nice things but for this Ohio State team they have much bigger goals this tournament.
The Cincinnati Bearcats have rode the momentum of their strong performance in the Big East Tournament and now Mick Cronin’s team has earned a spot in the Sweet 16 and a dream matchup for them as they get a crack at Ohio State. Cincinnati took out Texas in the first round and then beat a three seed in Florida State. Against the Seminoles Sean Kilpatrick had 18 points and six rebounds, Dion Dixon had 15 points, Yancy Gates had 10 points, and Jaquon Parker had nine points and 11 rebounds. As a team the Bearcats shot just 38 percent, 33.3 percent from beyond the three point arc, and they hit 82.6 percent of their free throws. Over the course of the regular season Cincinnati is 5-1 in neutral site games, 6-3 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the 66th ranked schedule in the nation. This is a huge game for the Cincinnati program as they don’t get too many chances to play in state OSU with the last meeting coming in 2006 and it was a 22 point loss.
Ohio State is 4-1 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover. Cincinnati is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games overall, 6-1 against the spread following a game which they covered, and 7-1 against the spread following a win.
The total for this one is set at 130.5 and it should slide over that number and that will be my pick.
Pick
Over 130.5
Michigan St. Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals
The Michigan State Spartans and the Louisville Cardinals battle it out on Thursday Night in the Sweet 16 with the winner going to the Elite Eight. The Spartans are -4.5 point favorites over the Cardinals with an over/under point total set at 124.5.
The Michigan State Spartans were given the final number one seed in the NCAA Tournament this year but thus far Tom Izzo’s team has looking deserving of that ranking. MSU took care of business in their opening round game against LIU-Brooklyn and then held off a game St. Louis team in round two. Against St. Louis Keith Appling had 19 points, Draymond Green had 16 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists, Brandon Wood had 10 points, and Derrick Nix added 10 points as well. As a team the Spartans shot 54.3 percent from the floor, 40 percent from beyond the three point arc, and they shot 64.7 percent from the free throw line. Over the course of the season Michigan State is 5-2 in neutral site games, 8-5 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the number one ranked schedule in the country. Tom Izzo puts a lot of teams in the Final Four and while this team started the season unranked they are just two wins away from making it to New Orleans.
The Louisville Cardinals weren’t the most consistent team over the course of the regular season but Rick Pitino has his team peaking at just the right time. Louisville beat Davidson in their first round game and then beat a very good New Mexico team in the second round to advance to this spot. Against New Mexico Russ Smith had 17 points, Kyle Kuric had 10 points, Chane Behanan had 10 points, and Gorgui Dieng had 10 rebounds. As a team Louisville shot 45.8 percent from the floor, 46.7 percent from beyond the three point arc, and 66.7 percent from the free throw line. Over the course of the year the Cardinals are 6-0 in neutral site games, 3-5 against teams ranked in the top 25, and they played the seventh ranked schedule overall in the country. The winner of the Big East Tournament has made the Final Four for the past several years and Louisville was this year’s champ.
Michigan State is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall, 8-3 against the spread following a win, and 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as a neutral site favorite. Louisville is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall, 0-6 against the spread in their last six games against Big Ten teams, and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog.
I like the over 124.5 here. I expect to pass this number with a few minutes still left on the clock.
Pick
Over 124.5
Florida Gators vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
The Florida Gators and the Marquette Golden Eagles battle it out on Thursday Night in the NCAA Tournament with a spot in the Elite Eight going to the winner. The Golden Eagles are -1 point favorites over the Gators with an over/under point total set at 146.
The Florida Gators have been a streaky team all season long and when Billy Donovan’s team gets the hot hand few are hotter but when they get cold, it’s ice cold, and the Gators appear to be grasping at straws. The question for this game is which Florida Gators’ team shows up for this game. Florida has stars and with five players averaging double digits the Gators have no shortage of options. Kenny Boynton is the top scoring option, Bradley Beal can score and grab rebounds, Erving Walker can create, score, and pass, and Patric Young is carrying around a world of expectations. Thus far in the tournament Florida has been able to have their way and hit their shots and they are seen as the major beneficiary of Missouri’s early exit as they drew Norfolk State in the second round. Where Florida has struggled and disappointed this season is against the better teams. Florida is going to do what they do and that is throw up a ton of threes but when they aren’t dropping it looks very ugly as a lot of their shots happen early in the shot clock and often they don’t look like they get the best looks at the hoop. As the old saying goes, you have to be in it to win it and Florida is definitely in it at this point.
The Marquette Golden Eagles have been in the top 10 for the bulk of the season and despite that ranking Buzz Williams’ team has been somewhat under the radar all season long as well. Marquette has lost five times since January first, all to teams who are in the NCAA Tournament and twice since the first week in February and both of the teams to beat them are still alive in the Sweet 16 when the day began. One concern for the Golden Eagles is that in their earlier game against an SEC team this season they were blasted at home by Vandy by 17 points but that was in December and Marquette is playing far better now. Jae Crowder was the Big East Player of the year, Darius Johnson-Odom averages more points than any player playing in this game at 18.5 and players like Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue stir the pot. Marquette lives off of turnovers and getting their opponents flustered and it isn’t uncommon for them to be trailing at the half. Against a team like Florida one of the big concerns early for Marquette will be to keep this one in reach.
Florida is 5-1 against the spread in their last six NCAA Tournament games, 8-3 against the spread against the Big East, and 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog. Marquette is 5-2 against the spread following a win, 4-1 against the spread in their last five NCAA Tournament games, and 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight non-conference games.
The total for this one sets up to be a high scoring game but I see it to be a shade lower than the aggressive total that has been posted and that will be my pick here.
Pick
Under 146
Creighton Bluejays vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Creighton Bluejays battle it out on Sunday with a trip to the Sweet 16 going to the winner. The Tar Heels are -8.5 point favorites over the Bluejays with an over/under point total set at 159.
The North Carolina Tar Heels looked very much like a number one seed in their game on Friday against Vermont and Roy Williams knows his team will need to remain focused if they are going to advance to the second week of the Tournament. UNC led Vermont at the half by 12 and never let up outscoring the Catamounts by seven in the second half to win by 19. Tyler Zeller had 17 points and 15 rebounds, James McAdoo had 17 points and six rebounds, Harrison Barnes had 14 points and six rebounds, and Kendall Marshall had 11 points and 10 assists. As a team North Carolina shot 41.5 percent from the floor 27.8 from beyond the three point arc, and 75 percent from the free throw line. Roy Williams biggest challenge this weekend will be to keep his team focused as they have the talent to play and beat anyone they face.
The Creighton Bluejays were in a battle in their first round game against Alabama but in the end Greg McDermott’s team hung on for the win by the narrowest of margins. Creighton trailed the Tide by seven points at the half but never gave up as they battled back and got the win. Doug McDermott had 16 points and 10 rebounds, Grant Gibbs had 10 points, six rebounds, and four assists, and Ethan Wragge had nine points. As a team Creighton shot 44 percent from the field, 42.9 percent from beyond the three point line, and just 38.5 percent from the free throw line. Creighton has been ranked for the better part of the season and this is a huge opportunity for this program to show they belong.
North Carolina is 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games, 8-3 against the spread in htei rlast 11 games overall, and 5-2 against the spread following a win. Creighton is 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall, 1-6-1 against the spread following a win, and 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 non-conference games.
The total for this one is set at 159 and while both of these teams can score I still have it staying under that number.
Pick
Under 159
Georgetown Hoyas vs. North Carolina St. Wolfpack
The Georgetown Hoyas and the NC State Wolfpack face off in the NCAA Tournament with a trip to the Sweet 16 going to the winner. The Hoyas are -4 point favorites over the Wolfpack with an over/under point total set at 132.
Many expected the Georgetown Hoyas to face a stiff test in round one with their match up against Belmont and if it was a test then John Thompson III’s team passed the test with flying colors. The close battle never developed as Georgetown led by nine points at the half and then extended the lead in second half as they coasted to a 15 point win. Jason Clark scored 21 points, Otto Porter had 16 points and eight rebounds, Henry Sims had 15 points and five assists. The Hoyas shot a blistering 61.2 percent from the floor, 41.7 percent from beyond the three point arc, and they shot 69.2 from the free throw line. Georgetown was ranked all season and played the 12th ranked schedule in the country so they ae battle tested and ready.
The NC State Wolfpack were an afterthought as they were closing out February and heading into March but Mark Gottfried’s team rallied to win five of their last six games as they got hot just at the right time. The Wolfpack looked to be in a good match up with San Diego State in the first round but NC State took what was a four point halftime lead and turned it into a decisive 14 point win. Richard Howell had 22 points, Lorenzo Brown had 17 points nine rebounds, and eight assists, C.J. Leslie had 15 points, and Richard Howell had 10 points. As a team the Wolfpack shot 58.5 percent from the floor, 33.3 percent from beyond the three point arc, and they hit 66.7 percent of their free throws. The Wolfpack showed in the ACC Tournament that they aren’t going to back down from anyone and don’t look for them to be backing down from the Hoyas in this spot.
Georgetown is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games against the ACC, 4-9 against the spread following a win, and 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 neutral site games. NC State is 6-0 against the spread in their last six neutral site games, 4-0 against the spread in their last four non-conference games, and 6-0 against the spread following a win.
The total is set at 132 and I see this one eclipsing that number so my pick will be on the over.
Pick
Over 132
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida St. Seminoles
The Florida State Seminoles and the Cincinnati Bearcats battle it out on Sunday for the right to play in the Sweet 16. The Seminoles are -2.5 point favorites over the Bearcats with an over/under point total set at 127.
The Florida State Seminoles were tested and given a scare but Leonard Hamilton’s team rallied and then hung on to beat a game St. Bonaventure team in round one on Friday. While Florida State didn’t look like the better team for the majority of the game they used their size advantage to outrebound the Bonnies and the Seminoles outside shots started falling. Bernard James had 19 points and nine rebounds, Luke Loucks had 13 points, seven rebounds, and six assists, and Okaro White had nine points in a game Michael Snaer didn’t score in. FSU shot 45.3 percent from the floor, 78.6 percent from the free throw line, and 36.8 percent from beyond the three point arc. With their win in the ACC Tournament the expectations are sky high for the Seminoles.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are looking to prove that their trip to the Big East Tournament Finals and their win over Syracuse were no fluke as Mick Cronin’s team is looking to make another run. Cincinnati went to the half against Texas up by 14 points and extended the lead to 24 but they ended up having to hold on and then earn the win again in the end. Yancy Gates had 15 points and 10 rebounds, Jaquon Parker had 13 points and six rebounds, Dion Dixon had 12 points, and Cashmere Wright had 11 points, six rebounds, and five assists. As a team the Bearcats shot 45.8 percent from the floor but shot just 50 percent from the free throw line and just 18.8 percent from beyond the three point arc. Cincinnati has already proved they can play with anyone and a win against a top tier ACC team will give them even more confidence going forward.
Florida State is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, 4-1 against the spread following a win, and 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 non-conference games. Cincinnati is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games overall, 5-1 against the spread following a win, and 6-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record.
This shapes up to be a war which suggests a low scoring game but I see it over the total.
Pick
Over 127
Syracuse Orange vs. Kansas St. Wildcats
The Syracuse Orange and the Kansas State Wildcats face off for a round two NCAA Tournament match up with a trip to the sweet 16 going to the winner. The Orange are -5.5 point favorites over the Wildcats with an over/under point total set at 134.5.
The Syracuse Orange looked like one of the clear favorites to win the NCAA Tournament this season but with the suspension of Fab Melo confidence in Jim Boeheim’s ability to win it all is waning. Syracuse did nothing in round one to make the public more confident in their ability to overcome Melo’s suspension as they struggled against UNC-Ashville before getting a seven point win, a number that was padded by some controversy and the usual end of the game fouling. The Orange shot 44.6 percent from the floor and 70.8 percent of the line and while Melo’s presence was clearly missing defensively what really hurt them was their 5 for 23 shooting from beyond the three point arc. Kris Joseph had 12 points and eight rebounds, Scoop Jardine had 11 points and seven assists, James Southland 15 points and eight rebounds, and Dion Waiters had 12 points. Syracuse has a lot of doubters now but they also still have plenty of talent on the roster to prove them wrong.
The Kansas State Wildcats came into the 2012 NCAA Tournament after finishing in fifth place in the 10 team Big 12 so the expectations of Frank Martin’s team were somewhat modest they took care of business against a game Southern Miss team in round one. K-State hit 50 percent of their shots from the floor and hit 76.5 percent of their free throws making 26 of their 34 attempts but were just 2 of 12 from beyond the three point line. Rodney McGruder had 30 points, Jordan Henriguez Roberts had 15 points and nine rebounds, and Angel Rodriguez had 13 points and four assists. The Wildcats have a big opportunity here and they will need to come out and play at the top of their game to take advantage of it.
Syracuse is 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games against the Big 12, 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games, and 0-4 against the spread in their last four neutral site games. Kansas State is 4-1 against the spread in their last five non-conference games, 1-4 against the spread against the in their last five against the Big East, and 3-10 against the spread against a team with a winning record.
The total for this one is set at 134.5 but look for defense to rule the day here and for this one to come in under the number.
Pick
Under 134.5
