Archive for March 2011
WITCH-HUNT BY THE BAY
March 31, 2011 | 
Author Witch-hunts are a good time, but they never get the real witch.
We’re hearing quite frequently that the Barry Bonds steroid/pergury/obstruction of justice trial has a rascist element to it. However, when it comes to enduring racism, he’s no Hank Aaron. In today’s era of overplayed political correctness, and current environment of white guilt that has infested America, Bonds has actually been spared any sharp criticism by white sports writers, who are too afraid of bigot accusations to truly speak their minds. (Same thing can be said about Obama). Imagine for a second what would have happened if Hammerin’ Hank had been caught doping. Lynch mob anyone? In the arena of racism victims, Bonds is no Henry Aaron.
I don’t think this is a racism issue, but I do believe this circus is a misguided witch-hunt, orchestrated by traditional elements of our society that fear for baseball’s future. We have been told for so long that baseball is a symbol of America, along with apple pie and Chevrolets. However, it has become obvious that baseball is in decline, and baseball purists think going after steroid users will reverse this trend.
I’m going to be the first to say it: Baseball is soon to be as inconsequential as steam locomotives, vinyl records, and rotary phones. My great grandchildren will only witness baseball at county fairs, being performed by the same type of fat losers involved in Civil War Reenactments. Their fears are not without merit. Among all major sports in America, baseball now ranks 3rd in sales of logo gear, 4th in attendance, and consistently ranks beneath the NFL in fan polls. If you throw NASCAR into the mix, the rankings sink even further.
Baseball purists believe this downward trend is because its most unique aspects, statistics and records, have been ruined. Growing up, I knew Aaron’s homerun total, but couldn’t tell you Marino’s TD passes, Jabbar’s scoring record, or Gretzky’s either. This witch-hunt is targeting Barry Bonds because he symbolizes how modern science, nutrition, and training have made a mockery of the most coveted records in all of sports, but tossing out the old record books is not why baseball is in decline – Its because our country has changed and the game has not. We live in a world of instant, magnificent entertainment, and such a slow moving, pastoral game as baseball has little place in our Internet driven world.
Not only has what Americans crave as entertainment changed, the demographics have shifted, and it seems that everything around us is changing at breakneck speed. The Ipad I received for Christmas has already been replaced by a new version. Where the hell did Newspapers go? My kids turn up their noses at animated movies that aren’t 3-D. I can now see my wife’s face while she’s bitching me out on my I-phone. Anyone know what happened to Rock n Roll? At times, I feel I can no longer keep up – but things sure are exciting, which is something baseball is it. Even boxing is not entertaining enough for us anymore. Ultimate fighting has kicked it to the curb. If two guys repeatedly hitting each other’s bloody faces with giant red gloves isn’t fun enough for America, than how can guys standing around spitting with caps on survive?
I’d like to dispel the notion that Baseball’s records are sacred. Would Barry Bonds have hit 758 home runs if he had played in the cavernous Astrodome for most of his career? How many more games would Ferguson Jenkins have won if he had not pitched at Wrigley Field with crappy teams that gave him meager run support? And what do we do with any hitting record achieved by a Colorado Rocky player? Thin air allows the ball to travel farther. Cy Young didn’t pitch to black hitters. Babe Ruth didn’t face Latin hurlers. The pitching mound’s height was lowered in the 60′s to increase hits. So are baseball’s records valid when it’s ridiculous to compare them from era to era? The glue that holds this sport together is nothing more than wheat paste.
So leave Barry Bonds alone. Rubbing bovine hormones on your ass is a victimless crime, and the world’s a mess right now. Let’s go find the real witches.
New Jersey Nets vs. New York Knicks
The New York Knicks are 9-point home favorites over the New Jersey Nets tonight at Madison Square Garden. The over/under total for the game is set at 208.
The New Jersey Nets are 23-50 overall and 34-39 against the spread. It’s really hard to think that the Nets only finally just got mathematically eliminated from the playoffs on Tuesday night when the Houston Rockets at home beat them 112-87. It was the third straight loss coming by double digits for New Jersey, and it marked the ninth straight game in which the team didn’t score 100 points. The last time that it dropped 100 in a game in regulation was in England against the Toronto Raptors on March 4th. Get used to this theme of virtually no offense. New Jersey ranks No. 28 in the league in scoring at 93.5 points per game, and it really hasn’t done that entire well without Deron Williams in the fold. Williams is averaging 14.8 points and 13.1 assists per game since coming over from the Utah Jazz, but he has missed just as many games as he has played in due to a wrist injury. Brook Lopez is the team’s leading scorer at 19.7 points per game, though we know that he just hasn’t done that great of a job on the glass this year. Give credit to Kris Humphries though, as he is averaging 9.9 points per game and 10.4 boards per game.
The New York Knicks are 36-38 overall and 42-32 against the spread. Carmelo Anthony referred to it as a “must win game†for the Knicks on Monday night, and the Knicks got the job done by taking down the Orlando Magic in OT. Of course, what we have to remember about that game is that Orlando was playing without Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick, two of the key members of its rotation, so it’s not like this was a team amongst the cream of the crop that New York took down. The Knicks have played well against some of the best teams in the league, as they have wins over the likes of the Miami Heat, New Orleans Hornets, Atlanta Hawks, and Memphis Grizzlies in. Of course, they also have some brutal losses to teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers. Still, it’s really hard to argue with just how good this team has been at times, and when you have three men on your team with the ability to go off for 30 in a night, you’ve got a lot of teams that are going to be afraid of you.
Tonight, I am going to take the Nets plus the 9-points. I don’t believe the Nets will win but I do think they will play hard against their local rival and keep it close and competitive.
Pick
New Jersey Nets +9 New York Knicks
Posted in NBA, Sportsbook | 
Tags: NBA, NBA betting, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks | 
Comments Closed
Kentucky Wildcats vs. UConn Huskies
The Final Four is upon us and the Kentucky Wildcats are 2-point favorites over the UConn Huskies. The over/under total for the game is set at 140. The Connecticut Huskies and Kentucky Wildcats meet for the second time this season. Kentucky lost badly to Connecticut, 84-67 in the November Maui Invitational final. Kemba Walker had 29 points for then-unranked Connecticut and big man Alex Oriakhi added 18 points and 11 rebounds, out-shooting eighth-ranked Kentucky 58-37 percent.
Kentucky is 29-8 overall and 17-15 against the spread. They are looking for its eighth national championship, the first since 1998. Coach John Calipari has never won a national title, losing the 2008 final to Kansas in OT while with Memphis. He also made the Final Four with UMass in 1996. Calipari led Kentucky to the Elite Eight last year and then saw five guys leave as NBA first-round picks including stars John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson. That would have decimated other programs, but Calipari added three dynamic freshmen in Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. However, it’s been the recent play of upperclassmen Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson that’s spurred them to the Final Four. Harrellson had 17 points and Liggins 15 in the 62-60 Sweet Sixteen upset over top-seed Ohio State as 5-point underdogs. Liggins also hit a key three-pointer with 37 seconds left in Kentucky’s 76-69 Elite Eight win over No. 2 seed North Carolina as 1-point favorites. Knight led with 22 points as his streaky play continues, but all five starters were in the double-digits.
The UConn Huskies are 30-9 overall and 21-12 against the spread. They are on a nine-game winning streak that began with winning the Big East Tournament as a ninth seed. Coach Jim Calhoun is looking for his third national title, with the others coming in 1999 and 2004. Kemba Walker is a first team All-American with averages of 23.9 points per game, 5.3 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game. He’s upped his scoring to 26.8 points per game during March Madness. Walker scored just 20 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight. He was 1-of-7 from three-point land and 7-of-17 overall. The Huskies would have likely lost that game earlier this year with Walker’s numbers, but they still won 65-63, although failing to cover the 3-points. Freshman Jeremy Lamb excelled with 19 points against Arizona, including some huge baskets down the stretch. He has a nice mid-range game and he’s really stepped up his play during this tournament.
The big question for Saturday is whether Walker can be contained. I believe that this is his tournament and will come through again on Saturday. I will take the 2-points as I believe UConn will advance to play in the finals on Monday evening. There is no slowing down Kemba Walker now.
Pick
UConn Huskies +2 Kentucky Wildcats
Posted in College Basketball, March Madness, Sportsbook | Tags: College Basketball betting, Kentucky Wildcats, march madness betting, UCONN Huskies | Comments Closed
Butler Bulldogs vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
The Butler Bulldogs are 3-point favorites over the Virginia Commonwealth Rams in the most unexpected Final Four matchup ever.  The over/under total for the game is set at 133. The favorites are all gone. None of the first or second seeds are heading to Houston this weekend for the Final Four. In a tournament rife with upsets, it’s only fitting that the two schools tipping the Final Four are the ones that did the most work to overturn status quo.
The Butler Bulldogs made a remarkable run through the Southeast Region, knocking off the first-, second- and fourth-seeded teams along the way. Underdogs in all four-tournament games, last Saturday’s win in the regional final was Butler’s 13th straight win to punch a return ticket to the Final Four. As extraordinary as the Bulldogs have been, VCU have been one of the greatest stories in tournament history, let alone this year’s event. The team that was never even supposed to get an invite to this year’s dance is now a win away from playing for it all. The Rams, like the Bulldogs, have been underdogs throughout the madness starting with there First Four game verses USC. VCU’s five-game assault on the court and has seen 1-, 3-, 6-, 10- and 11-seeds fall to the wayside. As impressive as their wins of both Georgetown and Purdue were, the Rams saved their best for last Sunday with a 71-61 whipping of Kansas, the final top seed left in the tournament. The final score wasn’t indicative of how convincingly Virginia Commonwealth beat the Jayhawks.
Butler’s four victories in the tournament are by a combined 14 points, a much different route than VCU who has been blowing everyone out. There hasn’t been anything pretty about Butler’s wins in the boxscores. The Bulldogs have shot progressively worse from all areas on the court since escaping with the 71-70 win versus Pittsburgh to advance to the Sweet 16. Florida had fewer turnovers, more steals and blocks, hit its free throws at a higher rate and shot better from the field overall in the Southeast Region Final. Still, Butler won the game in overtime, 74-71. Holding Florida to just one field goal the last six-plus minutes of regulation and working the offensive glass the entire game, especially late, pushed the Bulldogs to Houston.
I am taking the Butler Bulldogs minus the 3-points in the game o Saturday due to the fact that I believe experience will take its toll. Butler, who was in the Final Four last season, will not be overwhelmed by the situation or the game. They were one shot away last year from the National Championship. This experience will once again lead them to a title game on Monday verse either Kentucky or UConn.
Pick
Butler Bulldogs -3 Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Posted in College Basketball, March Madness, Sportsbook | Tags: Butler Bulldogs, College Basketball betting, march madness betting, Virginia Commonwealth Rams | Comments Closed
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Miami Heat is 13-point favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the matchup this evening. The over/under total for the game is set at 197. LeBron James returns to Cleveland for the second time since his unceremonious departure.
Miami is 3-0 overall and 2-1 against the spread against the Cavaliers this year. That includes the first meeting back on December 2nd. James brushed off the jeers of his former fans to explode for 38 points, winning 118-90 in a blowout as 5-point favorites. The Heat won the two home meetings since then, 101-95 as 16-point favorites on December 15th and 117-90 as 17-point favorites on January 31st. The “over†is 3-0 in the three meetings between the teams.
Miami is 51-22 on the season and 34-39 against the spread. They trail Chicago by 2-games in the Eastern Conference and Boston by 1-game for second. Miami has won five straight and is 8-1 since an awful five-game losing streak. The last game was a 125-119 home over Houston on Sunday. Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh each hit the 30-point plateau, combining for 94. Miami failed to cover as eight point favorites against Houston and is just 2-3 against the spread during this current winning streak.  The 244 combined points scored made a mockery of the 208-point total. The “over†is 2-0 in Miami’s last two games after the “under†was 4-1 in the previous five.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-58 overall and 31-41 against the spread. They have the NBA’s worst record and should get the top draft pick. Cleveland did get a 97-91 home win over Detroit last Friday, but then lost to Atlanta at home on Sunday, 99-83. The “under†is 8-0 in Cleveland’s last eight and 10-1 in the last 11. Cleveland is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games, 9-28 overall and 14-23 against the spread on the year at home.
This being an extremely important game for the Miami Heat I there playoff positioning and the extra motivation Lebron James will have, I believe  the Miami Heat will crush the Cavaliers this evening. I will gladly lay the 13-points and take the Heat tonight.
Pick
Miami Heat -13 Cleveland Cavaliers
Posted in NBA, Sportsbook | Tags: Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, NBA, NBA betting | Comments Closed
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Colorado Buffaloes
The Alabama Crimson Tide is 2-point favorites over the Colorado Buffaloes in the 2nd game of the NIT semi-finals. The over/under total for the game is set at 143.
Colorado stormed through three games at home to reach this point, and it definitely has proven worthy of being here in the NIT’s version of the Final Four. The offense has come alive again, putting up at least 81 in all three games. That gives the Buffaloes a scoring average of 83.7 points per game over the course of their last nine games, including the NIT and the Big XII Tournament. This is still one of the best offenses nationally, ranking No. 11 in the land at 80.1 points per game for the season. Colorado is shooting 47.5 percent from the field as a team, and 37.4 percent from beyond the 3-point line. It also makes teams pay at the foul line, where it ranks No. 5 in the land at 77.6 percent as a team. Alec Burks has been on absolute fire of late. Since the Big XII Tournament, he has averaged 25.5 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game, and he also has 14 steals to show for his work defensively.
Alabama is licking wounds sustained by being left out of the NCAA Tournament. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, New Mexico Lobos and Miami Hurricanes never stood a chance of coming into Alabama and winning in the NIT. JaMychal Green hasn’t had the best tournament in the world with the 14 points he scored against Miami last week was his best performance of the NIT, but he could be rejuvenated by the decision he made to come back to school for his senior season. Green is averaging 15.4 points per game, and he is the man that really has to step up to the plate to bring this team to a championship level in this tournament.
This should be quite the interesting contrast between these two sides, as Colorado obviously loves to get up and run, while Alabama is holding teams under 60 PPG for the season. My play for this game will be the under 142, as I believe the game will be played at Alabama’s tempo. Plus, both teams may be a little nervous in the beginning playing at Madison Square Garden.
Play
Under 143
Posted in College Basketball, Sportsbook | Tags: Alabama Crimson Tide, College Basketball betting, Colorado Buffaloes | Comments Closed
Sports Money Management Bet Sizes
Determining the appropriate bet size is difficult, but it’s not hard once you understand the basic concepts involved. The goal is to bet enough to maximize winnings while keeping plenty in reserve to withstand any potential losing streak. Because you could be the best handicapper in the world, but if you lose all your money during a bad run, you’re done, it’s that simple. You have to be conservative enough to keep yourself in action, during good times and bad. And the amount of your bankroll will determine your standard bet size. Few folks recommend this, but I think your percentage of bankroll that you should be willing to risk on each and every play does vary depending on the size of your bankroll.
Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars or a grand, somewhere in that range. For bettors with larger ‘rolls a standard play involves around 2%-3% of their bankroll. For example, with 10k to invest in sports betting, the standard wager size should be between $220 to win $200 or $330 to win $300. But if you only have $200 to begin with, betting 2% of your bankroll equals a $4 bet. Not much fun or excitement to win four bucks, nor much profit when you do win. That’s why, with lesser bankrolls, I’d advocate a more aggressive betting strategy for the short term; somewhere in the range of 5% – 7.5%. You have to be able to win something, and beginning bettors with this type of bankroll generally aren’t as concerned from the get-go about riding out a losing period. I would never recommend beginning to get involved with sportsbetting without a minimum of $500 in your bankroll, making a standard wager size in the $25 – $30 dollar range perfectly normal and acceptable for beginning bettors. It’s high enough to make some kind of profit and enjoy the fruits of your labors when you win, but you can ride out a bad week or two and still be in action.
The bottom line is this: don’t look for the quick score, because that’s when the odds really are against you. Professional bettors including myself don’t look for the 6-0 weekend. Rather, our goal is more like a 12-8 week, that coveted 60% winners to loser’s ratio. A $110 bettor who goes 12-8 for a week will return $320 on a total investment of $2200 for the week, about a 15% return. Ask any stock investor if they’d be happy with a 15% return for a week, and the answer is always “yes.†If you can average that kind of return over the long term, and it is quite possible to do so, you’ll be betting and winning on sports for years to come, and enjoying the profits from your sports betting investment. Small, steady, regular profit over the long term can only be achieved with a solid money management system such as this one.
Open up an account at sportsbook.com and they offer deposit bonuses on your first deposit of 10%. This will automatically start you in positives figures. You can’t go wrong with that!
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are 10-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers at home this evening. The over/under total for the game is set at 192. The Bulls continue to push for the Eastern Conference’s top seed and will need to continue to win to achieve this.
Chicago is 53-19 overall and 46-26 against the spread. They found ways to win over the weekend, which is what championship teams are supposed to do. The first game was a close 99-96 home win over Memphis on Friday. Derrick Rose scored the team’s final six points, although failing to “cover’†the nine-point spread. Saturday night was equally as tough in Milwaukee, the offensively challenged Bucks led 87-83 with under three minutes left before a furious 12-0 Bulls rally to end the game. Rose was again the hero with eight late points and30 overall. The 95-87 final scored covered the 5 –point spread for the Bulls. The 182 combined points scored went “over†the low 178-point total. The “over†is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five games after a prolonged “under†streak of 10-2 in the previous 12. The Bulls have now won four straight and are an incredible 19-3 overall and 17-5 against the spread since February 9. The Bulls now lead the conference by 2.5 games over fading Boston and three over Miami.
The Philadelphia 76ers are 37-36 overall on the season and 43-30 against the spread. The 76ers sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and have a playoff spot basically sewn up. Philadelphia’s last game was Sunday at home against Sacramento, the second meeting between the teams in nine days. The 76ers lost 114-111 in overtime as 8-point favorites. Philly is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games. The “over†is 4-0 in the last four games. The 76ers now travel to Chicago and are 9-10 against the spread in the second half of back-to-back situations this year. Their road record has been poor at 14-24 overall, but a solid 22-16 against the spread.
The home team is 2-0 overall and against the spread in games between Chicago and Philadelphia this year. Therefore, today I am wagering on the Chicago Bulls minus the 10-points. The Bulls are the more talented team, are playing at home, and have more to play for. That is why I will lay the 10-points in this game.
Pick
Chicago Bulls -10 Philadelphia 76ers
Posted in NBA, Sportsbook | Tags: Chicago Bulls, NBA, NBA betting, Philadelphia 76ers | Comments Closed
Major League Baseball Wagering Tips
With the start of the MLB season only a few days away I’m sure many people are getting excited to wager on America’s national pastime. Each day sportsbook.com offers the lines of each and every baseball game. Some tips to think about before placing those wagers are:
• A division rivalry game is always going to be a fierce battle on the baseball field and most of the time these games are real close. The value in division games is the underdog because since the rivalry will heat up in most games they will remain close.
• Baseball has seen a lot less runs scored over the past few seasons and thus many games are seeing much lower game totals. Look for value in games with either a low over/under or a high over/under and take advantage of them. I usually always bet under on game totals of 10.5 or more due to the percentages. If the game is lower then I need to look at the pitchers and offence for the two teams to make my decision. Also look at previous games from both teams and see what the final score was in them.
• If you can find an over-achieving underdog playing against a struggling favorite then lock in the underdog bet as soon as you can. You won’t be able to find these games often, but they do happen, so look for them and bet big on these games. Underdogs are always strong bets, but when their playing a struggling favorite it makes the bet even juicer.
• When you can find strong offenses that have been scoring runs every game on a consistent basis playing against a pitcher with a high ERA then bet on the team with the offence. These games can also be good for betting on team totals because generally a bad pitcher against a clicking offense spells lots of runs for one team
There are so many different factors and betting angles that you need to look at when betting on baseball, but the more you research the more you should win. Once you become familiar with the pitchers, players and teams you should be able to handicap games right as you see them. When you first start you’ll need to spend more time doing research, but it will all be worth it once you start making some money.
Wichita St. Shockers vs. Washington St. Cougars
The Wichita St. Shockers are 2-points favorites over Washington St. in the semi-finals of the NIT tournament. The total for the game is set at 142. The game is played at the world’s most famous arena, Madison Square Garden in New York City. Both teams were undoubtedly disappointed in not reaching the NCAA Tournament, though neither has played as if it was unhappy to be part of the NIT’s 32-team field. Some of that could be due to the Cougars and Shockers playing five of six games on their home courts.
Washington St. is 22-12 overall and 18-14 against the spread. They have been at home for all three of its tournament games, improving their home record to 11-4 on the season. The Cougars finished the regular season 9-9 in the Pac-10 standings, winning six of there nine home games in conference play. Seeded second in the NIT, Washington St. opened with wins and covers against Long Beach State, 85-74 and Oklahoma State 74-64. The Cougars reached the NIT Final Four with a 69-66 win in overtime versus Northwestern last Wednesday. Favored by four, they built a 14-point lead in the first half only to let the cushion dwindle away to nothing at the end of the second half. The Cougars only managed five points in overtime, but that was enough to eke out the win over the Northwestern who went cold on the offensive end with just one field goal in overtime. Klay Thompson scored four of Washington State’s OT points, leading the Cougars in scoring with 17. Klay Thompson tops the Cougars in scoring with a 22.0 per game average. The junior guard is right on that in the tournament with 21.0 points per game.
Wichita St. is 27-8 overall and 16-14 against the spread. They fell short of the NCAA Tournament when the Shockers lost the Missouri Valley Championship to Indiana State. The Shockers opened NIT play with an easy 76-49 romp at home versus Nebraska while laying six points. The Shockers then headed to Blacksburg to meet 1-seed Virginia Tech, returning to Wichita with a 79-76 overtime win as 5-point road underdogs. Back home Wichita State clinched a trip to New York City with last Wednesday’s 82-75 triumph against Charleston as 8-point home favorites.
The winner of this game will square off in the NIT Final on Thursday against the victor of the Alabama, Colorado contest. I expect Washington St. to be that team to play in the championship game on Thursday. The best player on the floor will be Klay Thompson, and should lead Washington St. to victory. Also, the fact that they have played a tougher schedule throughout the year will help them. I’ll take the 2-points and grab the Cougars in this matchup.
Plays
Washington St. Cougars +2 Wichita St. Shockers
Posted in College Basketball, Sportsbook | Tags: College Basketball betting, march madness betting, Washington St. Cougars, Wichita St. Shockers | Comments Closed
